The 2025 MLB Draft Lottery is in the rearview mirror and with it came carnage and jubilation. For some, added money and opportunity at the top of the draft. For others, the exact opposite. And the fallout in the years to come matters too.
The biggest winner of the night is without question the Seattle Mariners who bucked their 1.5 percent odds of landing a Top-3 pick and did just that. Seattle was expected to land the No. 17 pick in the Draft, a pick that was expected to hold a bonus-pool valuation of roughly $4.6 million. The No. 3 pick in the Draft will almost certainly be worth north of $9 million. Not only does the No. 3 pick afford the Mariners the opportunity to take a higher-ceiling player at the top, but it gives them financial flexibility to flex their muscles with the Competitive Balance A pick (expected to be pick No. 35), as well as their later picks if they so choose.
The St. Louis Cardinals allow came out thick as thieves landing the No. 5 pick in the Draft. The Red Birds were expected to pick 16th in the 2025 Draft, but jumped eleven spots thanks to ping pong balls. It’s another opportunity at an impact player after they selected shortstop JJ Wetherholt with the No. 7 pick in July.
Last, but certainly not least, the Washington Nationals secured the No. 1 overall pick after holding the fourth-best odds to pick at the top of the draft. Their 10.2 percent chance odds rang true. The three-pick vault should give the Nationals close to $2.5 million more to spend in July, as well as obviously giving them first dibs at the player of their choice at the top.
For some, the Draft Lottery was crushing however.
The Miami Marlins did not have a good day. After holding best odds of any team in the lottery to land the No. 1 overall pick, Miami will pick seventh. A precipitous drop like that will ultimately cost the Fish close to $4 million in bonus pool dollars. That loss in spendable pool dollars is arguably more damaging, especially as most believe their isn’t a franchise-altering superstar at the top of this draft as currently projected.
It wasn’t much better for the Colorado Rockies either. Both the Marlins and Rockies held close to 22.5 percent odds to land the No. 1 pick. The Rockies will pick fourth. It costs the organization close to $2.5 million in bonus pool dollars. Fourth isn’t a bad place to be in any Draft, but for a team who has held the best odds to land the No. 1 pick in back-to-back years, never to hear their name called, it hurts.
Furthering the blow? Picking inside of the top six in back-to-back years makes Colorado ineligible to pick inside the top nine picks in 2026.
It wasn’t a particularly fun night for Blue Jays fans either. They entered the night with the fifth-best odds to land the No. 1 pick. They’ll pick eighth. It’s only a $1.2 million difference in bonus pool dollars, but still. Not ideal.
Alongside the Colorado Rockies, the Washington Nationals will once again be ineligible to pick inside the top nine picks in the 2026 MLB Draft after landing a lottery pick this year.
We are working to find out whether the Los Angeles Angels or St. Louis Cardinals are also ineligible to pick inside the top nine picks in 2026.
**While league officials have not yet commented, Forbes is reporting both the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis Cardinals are Revenue Sharing Payors. Thus, they would be ineligible for a top-nine pick in the 2026 MLB Draft.
Teams that will end up picking slightly higher than odds expected: Los Angeles Angels
Teams that will end up picking slightly lower than odds expected: Cincinnati Reds, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs
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