If recent drafts are an indication of where the sport is going, the high-ride four-seam fastball may be on its way out. Or at least diminishing from a usage perspective.
2024 saw the lowest percentage of four-seam fastballs (31.3 percent) thrown since baseball started tracking pitch-usage data in 2008. It was also the highest percentage of sinkers (16 percent) seen in the league since 2018. Cutters (8.4 percent) and splitters (2.7 percent) also saw all-time highs in usage. Organizations are moving away from the four-seam fastball, and “turbo sinkers” are more and more becoming en vogue.
Big league organizations are using more and more picks inside of the top ten rounds to draft pitchers with fastballs that dive toward hitters and move east to west. The Seattle Mariners’ 2023 draft could be indicative of a bigger wave that could be on the horizon league-wide. Seattle’s player development on the pitching side is regarded as one of the more impressive departments in the league. Almost every single one of the pitchers they drafted in 2023 was a sinker-slider profile.
Hitters have figured out how to hit the high four-seam fastball. That’s not to say the outlier four-seamers won’t continue to be effective, but those are few and far between. We’ve gone from four-seamers dominating the opposition the elite sinkers doing the same. Hitters have adjusted and now league-pitching protocol is countering.
With that, it’s important we circle some of the draft-eligible outlier sinkers coming to college baseball in 2025. These may not be names that you’ll hear called in round one but could be priority adds in rounds thereafter.
To be considered, a pitcher must meet a majority of these parameters:
- Induced Vertical Break less than 9” OR 17.5” of hMOV
- Vertical Approach Angle steeper than -6°
- Peak SI velocity north of 95 mph
- Whiff rate north of 18%
- BB/K better than 1:1
It was important to include some guardrails to help steer the conversation. The purpose here was to find outliers. There are surely players that don’t tick a majority of these boxes who have exceptional stuff. In this case study, we’re simply looking for guys throwing torpedoes and anvils.
So what is the rationale for each of these components being included? We’re looking for guys who create steep approach angles and have enough arm talent to make it (or at least project) at the next level. That covers the first three bullets. To weed out arms a bit further, it felt important to highlight guys who have shown the ability to miss some bats and also throws strikes. Ultimately, it’s hard to carve out a role at the next level if you’re issuing free passes aplenty.
RANKINGS: Top 250 Draft Prospects | Board Update Early February
RANKINGS: Tucker Biven, Louisville
There’s a case to be made that Biven, a late-inning lockdown reliever for the Cardinals, has the single-best sinker in the country among draft-eligible pitchers. He threw 35.1 innings last season accumulating 40 strikeouts and walking just 10 batters.
The average release height of an MLB pitcher in 2024 was 68 inches. Biven comes in four inches higher than that. His sinker averaged south of 8 inches of IVB. Those two components, as well as his innate feel for landing his sinker at the knees, resulted in an average vertical approach angle VAA of -6.65°. Among those that threw at least 200 sinkers in college baseball last season, Biven ranks 15th in steepest average VAA. But different than most of those 14 listed above him, Biven knew where his sinker was going.
Biven sat 92-94 last season and touched north of 96 mph. He induced a 27-percent whiff rate on that pitch with an obscene 38-percent chase rate. His sinker was not only heavy, but it averaged more than 16 inches of arm-side tailing action as well. Biven is the only pitcher on this list to check every box and he did so with room to spare in most cases.
Biven has the look of a reliever at the next level, but he’s a good enough athlete that he could get drafted as a starter to begin his career. He’s got the durable bulldog build, the athleticism in the delivery, and he throws plenty of strikes. The sinker is complimented by a solid-average slider and a curveball that’s been used sparingly. His changeup has come a long way and might represent the highest-ceiling secondary in his arsenal, especially with how it plays off the sinker. Should he hope to hold up across the rigors of long innings, his up-tempo delivery may need to become more deliberate. This should help keep his arm on time more frequently and eliminate a mild stab he has as he breaks his hands. He belongs somewhere in the fourth to sixth round range for me depending on how a team projects his future role.
AJ Russell, Tennessee
If there’s one arm on this list that may buck the trend of non-first rounders, it’ll be Russell. Unfortunately for the masses, Russell underwent Tommy John surgery last June and his 2025 is very much in question. Across 14.1 innings last season, Russell punched 21 tickets and walked 8 batters.
A full reconstruction was required on Russell’s UCL, but he was fitted with an internal brace and the hope is he’ll be ready to return to action early in the 2025 season. Hope and reality often have a way of bifurcating, however. Russell insists he’ll pitch later this season for the Vols. Operating under that assumption, let’s talk about the stuff.
Tennessee RHP A.J. Russell has 44.2 collegiate innings to his name. He underwent Tommy John surgery last June. He ultimately might not pitch this season. We’ll see.
I’ll die on this hill… He should be a Top 30 pick. Obscene stuff and just scratching the surface. pic.twitter.com/KFqvvC1GkZ
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) January 22, 2025
Russell is one of the more unique righties in the country. He launches his arsenal from a sub-6-foot release. It’s more than nine inches lower than the average release height in MLB. His sinker averaged 17.5 inches of arm-side running action last year. Russell doesn’t sink the ball especially well. In fact, it would probably be argued his ability to maintain any carry at all on his fastball from his arm-slot should be the more hotly discussed topic here. The flatter approach he creates (-4.4°) from his 6-foot-6-inch frame is extraordinarily unique. Still, his fastball is categorized as a sinker, so we’ll operate as such.
Russell flirted with 98 last season and was routinely 93-95. He achieved this arm speed despite admitting to being hurt for more than a year. He induced a 32-percent whiff rate on his sinker and an exceptional 32-percent chase rate to boot. Russell spins the hell out of the baseball too. His low-80s slider has shown sweeping action and some quality depth when he gets over the top of it. He’s also flashed a changeup that could ultimately develop into a big weapon considering his release traits, but it’s a ways off. He’s a player development dream, provided a clean bill of health.
It may be difficult for an organization to pay Russell first round money this season unless he’s somehow able to log upwards of 40 innings. It’s not impossible, however. In 2022, Oklahoma righty Cade Horton was selected No. 7 overall in the Draft after pitching 53.2 innings coming off Tommy John surgery. 44.2 of those innings came after the start of May. If Russell gets on the mound at all this season, there’s a good chance his name is called in the first two rounds. We’ve seen plenty of damaged starting pitcher prospects selected in round two of late (Gunnar Hoglund, Jaden Hill, Landon Sims, Hunter Barco, Peyton Pallette, Grant Taylor, Connor Prielipp, Jaxon Wiggins) to suggest there’s a floor based on what he’s already shown.
Griffin Stieg, Virginia Tech
Another injured pitching prospect Stieg isn’t expected to throw in 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Last season across 51.2 innings, Stieg struck out 48 hitters and walked just 13.
Stieg’s sinker is a hell-seeking missile. His launch height is slightly lower than average, and his approach angle is also on the flatter end of the spectrum, though not as outlier as Russell. What separates Stieg is the elite amount of tailing action he generates with the sinker. There were times he induced more than 23 inches of lateral action on his heater. He averaged north of 20 inches squarely placing him in a small bucket of pitchers both in the amateur and professional ranks. He was up to 97 last season and routinely sat 92-95.
Stieg’s sinker needs to get more productive going forward after generating just an 18-percent whiff rate in 2024. He also generated just a 22-percent chase rate. Part of his current issue is well-below average extension down the mound allowing hitters to pick the ball up out of the hand early. Working to live near the top of the strike zone with the sinker could unlock a bit more production with that pitch considering the flatter approach angle. As it stands, his heater does not project to miss bats at-or-below the belt. Stieg does keep hitters off the barrel by flashing a solid-average sweeping slider and an above average changeup with diving action.
Stieg has the look of a high-octane reliever at the next level. It’s difficult to get through a lineup twice if you can’t miss bats with your fastball inside the strike zone. His three-pitch arsenal and strike-throwing ability gives him a shot. Considering his lack of extension, Stieg will likely need to be a guy who throws the slider and changeup a ton should he hope to find success the second time through the lineup. He is a fast-mover with a quick arm who could conceivably throw harder in shorter outings.
From this chair, Stieg belongs in the 5th to 8th round range in July. He could sneak into the late-third or the fourth round if a team buys into his chances to start as a pro. They’ll need to specifically have a plan for generating more value from the outlier shape on his sinker.
Jacob Pruitt, Mississippi State
After spending two strong years at Indiana State, Pruitt packed his bags for Starkville this past summer and enrolled at Mississippi State. Last year Pruitt threw 41.2 innings striking out 57 hitters and walking just five.
Pruitt is one of the more intriguing names on this list thanks to his bat-missing stuff. Pruitt is another low-slot righty throwing anvils. His sinker generates north of 19 inches of arm-side tailing action. He’s been up to 96 and was ordinarily 92-94 in his outings last year. His 27.5 percent whiff rate on the sinker is exceptional. And he missed bats inside the zone with it too. Pruitt doesn’t get many chases outside of the zone however.
E5 | UIC 5, ISU 3
Dial it up @Jacob_Pruitt_30 – that’s a strikeout for the freshman and highlights another scoreless inning on the board#MarchOn pic.twitter.com/P2igeUftAq
— Indiana State Baseball (@IndStBaseball) March 31, 2023
What makes Pruitt successful is his breaking ball. His sweeping slider is a mid-80s frisbee with big two-plane break. He’ll actually drop his arm-slot a bit to get the shape he’s currently producing. Pruitt’s slider induced a 41-percent whiff rate last season and an equally impressive 35-percent chase rate. He’s hardly shown the changeup in college baseball, a part of his arsenal he’ll need to show if he hopes to start at the next level.
But it’s not just a third pitch. Pruitt will need to improve upon his fringe-average control and command at the next level. He might have an above average fastball and the makings of a plus breaking ball, but if he can’t throw both when he wants his ceiling is capped. Pruitt is a fast-mover and will likely always battle the strike zone. He tends to throw the front-shoulder open early at launch at times, something inhibiting his ability to consistently repeat his delivery. If he can get to a point where his feel for the zone is even average, he’ll carve out a role as a big leaguer. From this chair, Pruitt looks like another fifth-to-eighth rounder who could bump into the third/fourth round range with more strikes and similar dominance in the SEC.
Xavier Richards, Georgia Gwinnett College
The sleeper of the bunch may be Richards. Reasonably unheralded, Richards is coming off a sophomore year where he threw 36 innings in relief. He struck out 38 batters and walked 14. He parlayed that into two summer ball trips. One to the West Coast League where he pitched 10 innings for Bend. He followed that up by pitching 4.1 innings on the Cape for Chatham. He finished the summer with 14.1 innings under his belt, striking out 14 and walked 8.
Richards left Sacramento State this fall and enroleld at Georgia Gwinnett College.
Richards throws bowling balls. His sinker touched 96 last season and averaged 92.5 mph. Despite being only 6-foot-3, Richards has a 77-inch release height. He’s throwing from the heavens and creating an average vertical approach angle steeper than -6.8°. Coupled with his 13 inches of IVB and almost 17 inches of arm-side run, it’s one of the steepest approach angles in college baseball. And Richards was able to post a few sinkers with less than 10 inches of IVB. If he can find that shape with more consistency, the results will only improve.
Richards also throws a four-seam fastball that possesses above-average carry through the zone, however that pitch did not perform as well as the sinker, nor is it as unique. From this chair, given the release traits, Richards should stick to the latter.
As one might imagine, Richards’ ground ball rate is an impressive 49 percent. But his results aren’t exclusive to soft contact. He posted a 26-percent whiff rate on the sinker in 2024 and generated a 33-percent chase rate. It’s been an effective pitch.
Richards slider is another good weapon. It’s a mid-80s breaker with two-plane tilt. That pitch generated a 56-percent whiff rate and a 31-percent chase rate as well.
This is a relief prospect through and through. Richards has tons of effort in his delivery with head-whack at release. He has done a nice job throwing strikes, but he projects into a low-to-mid leverage role at the next level. If the metrics stay where they were in 2024 or improve a bit, he projects as an arm who goes in the back-half of the 2025 Draft.
Honorable Mentions: Chas Wheatley, Iowa; Zach Erdman, Texas Tech; Evan Gibbons, Sacramento State; Mario Pesca, Oklahoma State; Robert Hogan, Kentucky; Jacob Weaver, Austin Peay; Julius Sanchez, Illinois; Dylan Delvecchio, St. Mary’s; Cameron Keshock, Samford; Grant Aycock, UNC Greensboro; Reed Interdonato, William & Mary; Jack Moffitt, Indiana
- A new meta? The best sinkers in college baseball - January 22, 2025
- 2026 MLB Draft: Top 100 College Prospects - January 2, 2025
- The MLB Draft is now a two-day event. What it means: - December 20, 2024
