MLB Re-Draft 2018: Skubal, Raleigh, Duran jump big

December 23, 2024

The results don’t necessarily suggest mistakes were made. Hindsight, as they say, is 20-20. Re-drafting seven years later is merely a fun exercise. It’s also designed as an ‘aw shucks’ generator, a what-could-have-been, of sorts.

To re-draft, we’ll use WAR to guide us but the picks will not be solely based on total WAR produced. We’ll use our collective brains — well, I will, I’m one person, I will use my brain, deal with it — to sort through what would be better from 2018 to now, as well as what’s left moving forward, using logic to go along with player performance.

To-date production and remaining organic control years will be a driving force in the selections.

The 2018 was a decent class, but the first round was rough. There’s still time for those picks to work out to some extent, but it’s getting late for some.

NOTE: Of the 1214 total selections in 40 rounds, 250 went unsigned, including four first-rounders:

  8. Braves: Carter Stewart, RHP
25. Diamondbacks: Matt McLain, 2B
30. Dodgers: J.T Ginn, RHP
36. Pirates: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP

All unsigned players will be ineligible for the re-draft.


1. Detroit Tigers: Jarren Duran, CF | Long Beach State
Duran didn’t break into the big leagues until age 24, and it took him until Year 3 to perform. But he was one the best players in the American League in 2024, and at 28 years of age has four seasons of organic control remaining to add to his 10 career WAR.

Duran was originally selected in Round 7.

 

Original Pick: Casey Mize, RHP — Auburn


2. San Francisco Giants: Cal Raleigh, C | Florida State
Raleigh has run up 11 WAR and has three seasons left to add to it as one of the elite backstops in the game. He was nearly a 5-win player in 2024 and already has 93 homers, including back-to-back 30-homer seasons.

Raleigh was the Mariners’ third-round pick.

 

Original Pick: Joey Bart, C | Georgia Tech


3. Philadelphia Phillies: Logan Gilbert, RHP | Stetson
Gilbert has been a value since breaking into the majors in 2021, and the last three seasons has compiled 10 WAR, including a 4-win 2024, No. 5 in the AL, a 3.23 ERA (9), 3.08 xERA (2), and 3.27 FIP (6). Gilbert, who has covered 585 innings over that span, has three more control years remaining and will not be 28 years old until May.

Gilbert went No. 1 overall to Seattle.

 

Original Pick: Alec Bohm, 3B | Wichita State


4. Chicago White Sox: Tarik Skubal, LHP | Seattle
Skubal is the Duran of arms in this class, breaking through to star levels just this past season when Skubal put up a dominating 6-win campaign and won the American League Cy Young. He has two seasons of control left and no reason he won’t continue a high level of production through free agency.

Detroit selected Skubal in Round 9.

 

Original Pick: Nick Madrigal, 2B | Oregon State


5. Cincinnati Reds: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP | Central Heights HS (PR)

Rodriguez carries five years of control into 2025 after a very good 20-start 2024 season that was cut short by a lat strain. The inherent risk in arms and especially Rodriguez’s lat injury are all that’s keeping him out of the Top 3 here. It’s a swing-and-miss changeup, and a chance to develop fastball value based on extension (7.3) and velocity (96.1 mph).

The O’s tabbed Rodriguez at No. 11 overall.

 

Original Pick: Jonathan India, 2B | Florida


6. New York Mets: Logan O’Hoppe, C | St. John the Baptist HS (NY)

O’Hoppe’s catch-and-throw skills are consistently average or better, and while it’s a power-over-hit profile at the plate he’s smacked 34 homers in just over 700 plate appearances the last two seasons.  He’ll probably always swing and miss at a high rate — it’s below-average bat speed — but he’s handled fastballs from a power perspective and took a step forward versus breaking balls. O’Hoppe is a huge value over the next four years as-is, but he’s just 25 to start next season.

O’Hoppe was the Phillies’ 23rd-round pick.

 

Original Pick: Jarred Kelenic, OF | Waukesha West HS (Wis.)


7. San Diego Padres: Shane McClanahan, LHP | South Florida
McClanahan missed part of 2023 and all of 2024 but is expected to be nearly full-go for 150 innings in 2025. He was good in 2021, outstanding in 2022 (3.6 WAR), and was on his way to another 3-win season before the injury. McClanahan has three control years left.

McClanahan went No. 31 overall to the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

Original Pick: Ryan Weather, LHP | Loretto HS (Tenn.)


8. Atlanta Braves: Steven Kwan, OF | Oregon State
Kwan is a fine left fielder in addition to a high-contact, high-average table setter who posted a strong .425 slugging percentage, including a career-best 14 homers. Kwan has three more organic control seasons to build on his already terrific career.

Cleveland took Kwan in Round 5.

 

Original Pick: Carter Stewart, RHP | Eau Gallie HS (Fla.)


9. Oakland Athletics: Kyle Bradish, RHP | New Mexico State
Bradish was terrific in 2023 and looked like he was taking another step toward frontline status when his UCL caved. He’ll start 2025 with four years of control remaining, and a strikeout-groundball combination among the best in baseball.

The Angels selected Bradish in the fourth round.

 

Original Pick: Kyler Murray, OF | Oklahoma


10. Pittsburgh Pirates: Nico Hoerner, 2B | Stanford
Hoerner is the class leader in WAR at over 15 by both formulas, and has done it with defense, speed, and essentially a consistent, solid-average bat, and despite a slow start his first two seasons. Hoerner, who has just one control season remaining, has been worth 13 WAR the last three seasons.

The Cubs took Hoerner at No. 24 overall.

 

Original Pick: Travis Swaggerty, OF | South Alabama


11. Baltimore Orioles: Reese Olson, LHP | North Hall HS (Ga.)
Olson’s track record is shallow and he’s yet to post a full big-league season, but he flashed in 2023 and turned another corner this past season looking the part of a mid-rotation starter with a chance to be more. He’s posted just 4 WAR thus far but has five more years of control and the stuff to take it all up a notch.

Olson went in the 13th round to the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Original Pick: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP | Central Heights HS (PR)


12. Toronto Blue Jays: Triston Casas, 1B | American Heritage (Fla.)

This is more of a projection pick, with Casas flashing big power and having four more years of control, but he’s had problems staying off the IL in the minors and the majors. A 150-game season could produce 35-40 homers and high walk rates, though there’s likely to be some swing-and-miss to consider, and he’s firmly below average defensively.  More health since he debuted in 2022 would push Casas up this list several spots, but it’s a real concern.

Casas went No. 26 to the Boston Red Sox.

 

Original Pick: Jordan Groshans, SS | Magnolia HS (TX)


13. Miami Marlins: Jeremy Peña, SS | Maine
I took the shortstop here, based on Peña’s power and power potential, positional advantage, and high floor. Peña, 27, has three control seasons left and just turned 27 in September. There are players with more upside here, but the floor is awfully attractive in this spot. Hindsight is great, isn’t it?

Peña originally went in Round 3 to the Houston Astros.

 

Original Pick: Connor Scott, OF | Plant HS (Fla.)


14. Seattle Mariners: Brendan Donovan, 2B | South Alabama
Donovan, 28 this offseason, has been an underrated performer in three years as a major leaguer. He had his best season yet in 2024, playing in 153 games and slashing .278/.342/.417 splitting time at multiple positions. Donovan carries three more control years into 2025.

Donovan went to the St. Louis Cardinals in Round 7.

 

Original Pick: Logan Gilbert, RHP | Stetson


15. Texas Rangers: Joe Ryan, RHP | Stanislaus
Ryan has been a consistent dealer for the last three seasons and got to three wins last season despite missing two months. He’s expected to be ready for spring training where he’ll start his three-year run to add to his 8-plus win career.

Ryan went to the Minnesota Twins in the seventh round.

 

Original Pick: Cole Winn, RHP | Orange Lutheran HS (Calif.)


16. Tampa Bay Rays: Brady Singer, RHP | Florida

Singer lacks the upside and track record of the arms ahead of him, but he’s been a steady 2-3 win starter since breaking into the majors in 2020. It’s mostly a volume play, as Singer doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but his ability to generate swing-and-miss is adequate, and his sinker helps him generate ground balls.

Singer originally went No. 18 overall to the Kansas City Royals.

 

Original Pick: Matthew Liberatore, LHP | Ridge HS (Ariz.)


17. Los Angeles Angels: Parker Meadows, OF | Grayson HS (Ga.)
Meadows got a taste of the bigs in 2023 but showed signs of a major breakout in 2024 when he posted a 111 wRC+ in 82 games. He’ll strike out, but also draw walks, and he may be a 20-20 player with plus defense in center. It’s a limited resume, but we’re at that part of the draft and Meadows’ tools lend hope for an everyday player.

The Detroit Tigers selected Meadows in Round 2.

 

Original Pick: Jordyn Adams, OF | Hope HS (NC)


18. Kansas City Royals: Lawrence Butler, OF | Westlake HS (Ga.)

Butler had the best year of his professional career in 2024, minors included, when he hit 22 homers and posted a 3-win season for the A’si in 125 games. It’s 30-homer power and at least average speed, but he projects to swing and miss some and is likely a fringe-average corner glove moving forward. He’s controlled for five more seasons, however, and worth the shot here rather than going with more banked value and a higher floor.

Butler originally was a sixth-round pick by the Athletics.

 

Original Pick: Brady Singer, RHP | Florida


19. St. Louis Cardinals: Brice Turang, SS | Santiago HS (Calif.)
Turang hasn’t hit much yet, but he makes contact, will take a walk, can really run (50 stolen bases in 2024), and is an elite second base glove who may end up plus at shortstop with Willy Adames now in San Francisco. He should be able to get to 10 homers a year at peak but it’s well below-average bat speed and a swing plane engineered for ground balls and line drives. He’s controlled for five more years, however, so there’s time to get the bat going.

Turang went No. 21 overall to the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Original Pick: Nolan Gorman, 3B | O’Connor HS (Ariz.)


20. Minnesota Twins: Lars Nootbaar, OF | USC
Nootbaar gets the nod here thanks to banked value, but he is somewhat limited moving forward. Nootbaar, however, has flipped the script a little bit and looks like a bat that may be able to hold his own versus left-handed pitching (125 wRC+ vs LHP in 2024) showing his struggles there in 2023 to be the outlier. He’s an average glove with average physical tools, but he makes a lot of solid contact and may be a swing tweak from hitting 20 homers. Nootbaar enters 2025 with three years of organic control remaining.

The St. Louis Cardinals selected Nootbaar in Round 8.

 

Original Pick: Trevor Larnach, OF | Oregon State


21. Milwaukee Brewers: Matt Vierling, 3B/OF | Notre Dame

Vierling can manage at third base and center field and might be plus in an outfield corner if he gets the chance to stick and play a regular position. At the plate, he was a little bit of a late bloomer, but it’s solid-average contact rates and average power for three more seasons after a 2.6 fWAR campaign in 2024.

The Philadelphia Phillies selected Vierling in the fifth round.

 

Original Pick: Brice Turang, SS | Santiago HS (Calif.)


22. Colorado Rockies: Taj Bradley, RHP | Redan HS (Ga.)

Bradley has flashed very good stuff and has five years of control left, but injuries and command have curbed his production thus far. He’s 94-98 mph with a four-seamer, but the pitch gets hit pretty hard, and despite a slight decrease in usage was the difference between a 1.5 fWAR season and a mid-rotation outlook. He’s just 24 in March, so there’s time, but he’s been working on these issues since the club elected him in Round 5.

Bradley originally went in Round 5 to the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

Original Pick: Ryan Rolison, LHP | Ole Miss


23. New York Yankees: Jonathan India, 2B | Florida

India has been a slightly above-average hitter overall, but his two best seasons, 2021 and 2024, are sandwiched around two mediocre years at the plate. It’s consistent contact and some walks to go with average power. He’s a fringey defender at second, but showed more consistency in 2024. India will begin 2025 with two seasons of organic control left.

The Cincinnati Reds selected India No. 5 overall.

 

Original Pick: Anthony Siegler, C | Cartersville HS (Ga.)


24. Chicago Cubs: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP | Kempner HS (TX)

Woods-Richardson’s first extended look was a success, including 28 starts and 133.2 innings of league-average baseball — and a chance for more. The stuff isn’t great — 92-94 mph, but all three of his secondaries have a chance to be average or better pitches. The 23-year-old carries six seasons of control, so even if he’s just a No. 4 starter there’s plenty of value here.

Originally, Woods Richardson went in Round 2 to the New York Mets.

 

Original Pick: Nico Hoerner, 2B | Stanford


25. Arizona Diamondbacks: Xavier Edwards, 2B | N. Broward Prep (Fla.)

Edwards has done nothing but hit in his big-league opportunities, and in 2024 slashed .323/.397/.423 in 70 games, while swiping 31 bases. There’s no power here and he belongs at second base rather than short, and in the end may simply be a good utility player, but it’s five more years of control and at least a chance at a few seasons of everyday value at a premium position.

Edwards was the No. 38 overall pick by the San Diego Padres.

 

Original Pick: Matt McLain, SS | UCLA


26. Boston Red Sox: Ryan Jeffers, C | UNC Wilmington

Jeffers has ranged from plus to fringe-average defensively — the more he plays, the more his defense take a hit — but he’s consistently hit for power in what amounts to a Mitch Garver-type career thus far. Jeffers has posted 6-plus wins in four-plus seasons, and in 2024 got to 122 games played a career-high 21 homers. He moves forward with two more seasons of control but would rank a lot higher here if he’d played more regularly since debuting in 2020 (one season over 100 games played), peaking at 700 innings caught.

Jeffers went in Round 2 to the Minnesota Twins.

 

Original Pick: Triston Casas, 1B | American Heritage (Fla.)


27. Washington Nationals: Alec Bohm, 3B | Wichita State

Bohm toiled along under two wins per season until he batted .280/.332/.448 in 143 games in 2024. Whether or not he can repeat or come close to that season over the next two seasons reains to be seen, but it’s in the books and Bohm’s consistency and improved defense offers a solid floor.

The Philadelphia Phillies selected Bohm No. 3 overall.

 

Original Pick: Mason Denaburg, RHP | Merritt Island HS (Fla.)


28. Houston Astros: Trevor Larnach, OF | Oregon State

Larnach had a solid 2024, posting a 121 wRC+ in 121 games, largely thanks to improved contact rates (22.3% vs. 34% in 2023). He’s still figuring out how to deal with left-handed pitching, however, so it’s just a strongside platoon bat right now, albeit one with three seasons of control left and shot to hit 25 homers and post .350 OBPs.

The Minnesota Twins took Larnach with the No. 20 overall selection.

 

Original Pick: Seth Beer, 1B | Clemson


29. Cleveland Guardians: Joey Bart, C | Georgia Tech

Bart scuffled in San Francisco but broke out a bit in 2024 with the Pittsburgh Pirates at age 27. It was mostly against left-handed pitching (174 wRC+), but he was average against right-handers and has always been capable defensively. Despite replacement-level value for his first two full seasons, Bart’s projection as an average or better backstop for the next three years is as valuable as anything else on the board.

Bart was the No. 2 pick by the San Francisco Giants.

 

Original Pick: Bo Naylor, C | St. Joan of Arc


30. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ryan Weathers, LHP | Loretto HS (Tenn.)

Weathers flipped a switch in 2024, throwing strikes at a high clip, missing more bats, and generating more ground balls. It was just 16 starts and a 1-win season, but the stuff suggests more to come over his four upcoming control seasons.

The San Diego Padres selected Weathers with the No. 7 overall pick.

 

Original Pick: J.T. Ginn, RHP | Brandon HS (Miss.)


Others considered: Tyler Holton, LHP; Kelenic, OF; J.P. France, LHP; Jake McCarthy, OF; Drew Rasmussen, RHP; Ryan Walker, RHP; Nolan Gorman, 3B; Josiah Gray, RHP; David Fry, C; James Outman, OF; Alek Thomas, OF;

Jason A. Churchill
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