The Houston Astros lead the American League West by percentage points and have added left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to their inconsistent rotation in a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.
Kikuchi, a free agent at season’s end, has had a much better season than his standard ERA (4.75) would suggest. His 3.98 xERA, 3.64 FIP, and 3.39 xFIP tell us he’s been above average in his 22-start venture in 2024.
The 33-year-old has pitched into the sixth inning or beyond in 15 outings and compiled a career-best 6% walk rate. It’s a mid-rotation arm for Houston to help fill a gap left by the injured Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, and Justin Verlander.
The Astros, however, are taking a leap of faith Kikuchi will get back to his early-season self. While he has had some issues with right-handed batters, however, allowing a .280/.323/.441 slash, including 14 home runs, he has struggled mightily in his last eight starts, allowing 33 earned runs on 49 hits in 38.1 innings.
To acquire the southpaw, Houston sent the Blue Jays right-handed pitching prospect Jake Bloss, outfielder Joey Loperfido, and infield prospect Will Wagner.
Bloss is the headliner and made his big-league debut for the Astros in June and tallied three starts as a fill-in. The 23-year-old offers a 92-95 mph four-seamer, an average, firm slider, a 78-82 mph curveball with depth and a chance to miss bats, and a promising mid-80s changeup.
It’s a No. 3 ceiling, but he’s near-ready to ready, giving the Jays an internal option to replace Kikuchi in the rotation immediately.
Loperfido is a 25-year-old slugger with a chance at 25 homers and a regular role with average or better defense. The swing-and-miss is a hurdle and he’s had problems finding the barrel, but the power is plus to the pull side.
Wagner, 26, is a lefty-hitting infielder with no chance at shortstop, but he could stay on the field as a bat-first second baseman or utility player, though his fringe-average arm may limit the possibilities somewhat. He makes consistent contact and will draw a lot of walks, but his power ceiling is well below average. It’s also a fringe speed, so his value is all about getting on base. He’s the son of former closer Billy Wagner, making it strange thinking about ordinary arm strength.
Considering it’s two months of a mid-rotation arm, the Astros paid a hefty price, even if there isn’t a future all-star in the return package. On the surface, it appears Toronto received as much or more in this trade than did the Chicago White Sox in return for Erick Fedde, who has another year before free agency.
The Astros need Kikuchi to perform well to justify the cost, particularly if the club gets to the postseason and the lefty makes an impact there. There were better starters on the market, including Jack Flaherty, Blake Snell, and Garrett Crochet, but there’s also a chance GM Dana Brown isn’t done dealing yet.
Toronto has now moved Yimi Garcia, Justin Turner, and Kikuchi, adding young players, most of which are big-league ready.
TRADE GRADES (20-80 Scale)
Houston: 40
Toronto: 60
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