TRADE ANALYSIS: The Rays are building a juggernaut farm, Jason Adam to the Padres

July 28, 2024

In what is shaping up to be an extreme sellers market, the Rays sent right-handed reliever Jason Adam to the Padres in exchange for three exciting prospects. Right-handed pitcher Dylan Lesko, catcher J.D. Gonzalez and outfielder Homer Bush Jr. are going from San Diego to Tampa Bay.

The Rays have thus far acquired Lesko, Gonzalez and Bush Jr. to go along with outfielders Aidan Smith, Matthew Etzel, infielder Mac Horvath, and pitchers Jackson Baumeister and Brody Hopkins. All this, plus a player to be named later from Seattle. Every single player listed above will be featured in our midseason Rays Top 30 prospect list (so far).

It stands to reason they’re not done dealing yet either.

For San Diego

While not a household name, Jason Adam has been one of the most consistent relievers in baseball over the last three years. Adam, who turns 33 years old next week, has thrown 47 innings this season accruing 50 punch outs and walking just 16 hitters. His 0.894 WHIP ranks among the best in the American League for bullpen arms.

Adam is one of the premier arms in the league in terms of limiting base hits from the opposition. His 5.0 H/9 ranks among the best in the league.

The Padres will likely use Adam in high-leverage situations. He features a full menu of pitches with a mid-90s four-seamer featuring above average command at the top of the zone. Adam commands an above average slider and above average changeup beautifully to their break-corner quadrants. There’s also a sweeper that’s more sparingly, but has been effective in getting right-handed pitchers out in front.

Adam is controlled through the 2026 season.


For Tampa Bay

The Rays have a nice little prospect trio coming back in exchange for Adam. Lesko was the Padres no. 4 prospect in our preseason rankings. Bush ranked 17 while Gonzalez was the No. 25 prospect in San Diego’s system. All three were still going to rank inside the top 3o in our midseason rankings with considerable jumps for Bush and Gonzalez.

Lesko is the prize of this crop, at least on the surface. The 2022 first round pick has struggled to regain his shine since undergoing Tommy John surgery when he was drafted. Lesko’s fastball velocity and fastball command have both backtracked rather aggressively since arriving to pro ball. The four-seamer averages 93 mph, though he was more 94-97 mph as a prep. It’s a pitch that continues to feature above average shape and bat-missing metrics but getting that pitch to play up to its potential has been a struggle. Lesko has 52 walks in 69.2 innings pitched at High-A Fort Wayne. He does have 79 strikeouts to go along with the inflated walk rate.

Lesko throws a mid-70s curveball that possesses intriguing shape, but needs to be thrown more firm. There’s a low-80s changeup that flashes plus characteristics and average command. Lesko’s slider is largely average in shape and metrics, but is a stiffer pitch than his two more refined secondaries. Adding more sweep and/or vertical plane on that pitch will continue to be a priority in his development.

Still just 20 years old, Lesko has a ton of upside and development ahead of him. Many scouts felt Lesko was one of the better pitching prospects they’d seen prior to injury in his high school career. There’s still a ton of pedigree here. He won’t need to be added to the 40 man roster for protection from the Rule 5 draft until after the 2026 season so Tampa Bay can take their time.

Gonzalez, 18, has an intriguing set of tools despite struggling to perform on the offensive end at this early stage in his career. The skills behind the plate have long stood out going back to high school. It’s a 70-grade arm and improving framing/blocks. As far as catching prospects go, Gonzalez is as good a bet as any to stick behind the plate. There’s above average power and physicality in the box, but he’s running a .205/.322/.230 slash with zero homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28 percent at Class-A Lake Elsinore.

Gonzalez is also running a ground ball rate north of 43 percent. There’s work to do on the offensive end but he won’t turn 19 until after the season ends.

Bush Jr. was one of the fastest players in the Padres organization. It’s borderline elite speed. He’s impressed thus far for High-A Fort Wayne to the tune of a .272/.362/.347 slash. Bush simply doesn’t strike out allowing his speed to come into play on the bases. He already has 43 stolen bases in just 86 games played this season.

There’s some bat speed and projection in his profile though scouts do not believe he’ll ever grow into more than below average game power. It’s a line-drive swing with ground ball rates that have floated near 50 percent for much of his career. There are legitimate centerfield tools here with the bloodlines and projection to suggest he may gradually grow into a bit more impact.

Joe Doyle
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