TRADE ANALYSIS: Red Sox lengthen lineup with Danny Jansen

July 27, 2024

In a rare interdivisional deal, the Red Sox and Blue Jays are reportedly in agreement on a trade that would send catcher Danny Jansen to Boston in exchange for infielders Cutter Coffey, Eddinson Paulino and hard-throwing righty Gilberto Batista. It’s been a whirlwind of trades for Toronto as the trade deadline nears. They’ve been one of the most active sellers thus far.

For Boston

Jansen, 29, has been one of the steadiest catchers in baseball over the last few seasons despite never locking down a full-time role in Toronto. He’s in the midst of a .212/.303/.369 campaign with six homers in the 62 games he’s been a part of. The Blue Jays have struggled to get both Jansen and Alejandro Kirk into games together over the past three seasons, however Jansen has consistently found a way to produce at least 1.5 fWAR per season going back to 2021. In fact, despite not having played in over 100 games even once in the last four seasons, Jansen still has the 12th-most fWAR for catchers during that span. He’s been remarkably consistent and valuable when he’s been in the lineup.

A throwback to yesteryear in this boom-or-bust era, the former 16th round pick is running an 18.4 percent strike out rate and an 11 percent walk rate. He puts the game in motion and punishes mistakes.

It could be argued Jansen is currently having his worst offensive year since 2020, but the peripherals still like him and a resurgent second half would not come as any sort of surprise. He’s as steady as they come.

Jansen is an average catcher with average arm strength. He has fringy pop times and isn’t the most decorated backstop in terms of holding the run game, but he lays on grenades and blocks balls in the dirt better than most of his peers.

Jansen is controlled through the end of this season and it set to hit free agency this winter.


For Toronto

The Blue Jays have a nice little prospect trio coming back in exchange for just two months of Jansen. Infielders Cutter Coffey and Eddinson Paulino, as well as minor league RHP Gilberto Batista, are heading Toronto in the deal.

Coffey, 20, is enjoying a bit of a breakthrough 2024 season after underwhelming in his first couple seasons in professional ball. Coffey, a second round pick by Boston in 2022, is slashing.238/.321/.463 for High-A Greenville this year. His 14 homers are more than double his original career-high of six from 2023. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in Coffey’s game but he’s growing into significant power and could profile as a power-first third baseman when all is said and done.

Paulino, 22, is a left-handed hitter with a bunch of fringy to average tools. He ranked no. 14 in the Red Sox system in our preseason top 30 and was set to rank no. 17 in our midseason update. He’s a performer and a gamer who gets the most out of the physical traits he has. Paulino is currently running a .263/.349/.391 slash with just three homers at Double-A Portland. His batted-ball data has backed up despite an impressive ground ball rate under 30 percent. Paulino’s versatility and polished left-handed approach should get him to the big leagues, though he’s unlikely to feature much impact in the box.

Batista, 19, is still developing in the Florida Complex League, though he’s shown punch out stuff and projects a fly-ball pitcher. It’s a four-pitch mix with a fastball touching 96, two breaking balls and the early clay of a changeup. It’s a starter operation, though Batista has battled below average control and command this season as evidenced by his 13 walks in just 20 innings pitched. He’s several years away, but it is pretty exceptional arm talent.

 

Joe Doyle
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