EDITOR’S NOTE: The following rankings and evaluations by FSS PLUS are based on subjective analysis and industry sources, and do not influence, are not influenced by or are affiliated with the opinions and reports of Future Stars Series scouting and development staff.
Welcome to the first refresh of the 2025 MLB Draft cycle. We’re well underway.
The 2025 Draft is four months away so it’s time for the Future Stars Series PLUS Top 300 prospect board update. This board is built on three pillars. Live looks, data evaluation, and intel/conversations provided from within the industry. These players have a ton of time and projection ahead of them, so expect this list to change considerably as we approach the 2025 Draft.
NEW to this edition are Calculated OFPs and Carrying Tools for each player. The Overall Future Projection (OFP) outcomes on this board are calculated with an OFP Calculator built for Over-Slot subscribers. It weighs each tool appropriately (and differently) depending on the position of the player being evaluated.
Using a combination of Dave Cameron’s research and Fangraphs contributor Ben Clemens’ future outcome projections as an imperfect reference, the odds of a player meeting his OFP projection is roughly 25 percent with the likelihood increasing as the OFP increases.
The odds of a player outperforming their projected OFP also increases as the OFP increases. As is to be expected, players with an OFP less than 48 are particularly more likely to struggle to establish a Major League role.
As of March 10, this class is muddy. Really muddy. Depending on the metric you value or the scout you speak to there are no less than 30 different players with an argument to be featured in the top 10.
College bats simply aren’t impressive. The ones that are hitting aren’t putting up impressive batted-ball metrics. Each hitter seems to have a significant wart worth examining. Old-school scouting and projection-based modeling will be key this July.
Jamie Arnold is a metric freak. His ability to create velocity and angles from a 55-inch release height is reasonably unprecedented. Arnold has an extremely, outlier-esque flat approach angle with a fastball that absolutely feasts at the top of the zone. He’s been up to 97 but more impressively holds 92-95 into the deepest innings of his starts.
It’s very comfortably a plus fastball and you might find more scouts that slap a 70 grade on the pitch than you do the latter. Arnold can feast on lower-level opposition with one pitch and that alone is extraordinary.
As Arnold has matured into his craft, gotten stronger and has continued to better understand how his body works, his athleticism has continued to tick higher and higher. He’s added nearly six inches of extension down the bump over the course of the last twelve months and it’s allowing his entire arsenal to play even better than before. He’s now generates well-above-average extension compared to his Major League counterparts.
The fastball is really just the start of a complete arsenal. Arnold’s sweeper is just as impressive featuring considerable depth and big lateral action to get left-handed hitters looking foolish on the regular. He’ll back-foot the breaking ball to right-handed hitters too. He commands the pitch well and his misses are competitive.
Arnold went to Driveline prior to the 2025 season to work on his pitch shapes, particularly his changeup. What was once inconsistent in terms of execution and consistency is now flashing way more impact potential. Arnold generates more depth and more fading action than ever before.
While it’s still largely average in terms of command, landing that pitch anywhere in or near that zone makes for an offspeed pitch that’ll consistently flash plus.
Arnold is a strike thrower with a simple delivery, a loose arm, and athleticism in his operation. He could eventually end up throwing even harder than he is today. He’s precisely what a top-of-the-rotation starter looks like. Scouts are looking for *different* when it comes to pitching prospects. Arnold is very different and will undoubtedly garner Chris Sale comparisons as the Draft approaches.
Carlson is polished beyond his years at the plate with supreme pitch recognition and boasts strong bat-to-ball numbers against advanced velocity and tough breaking balls.
Passivity early in counts has gotten him into too many pitchers’ counts in the past, and strikeout numbers have been streaky because of it, but most scouts believe he has fallen victim to poor umpiring more than anything at times throughout his amateur career.
Folks who have paid close attention to his game have never doubted the plan at the plate. He hits the ball on the ground a touch more than scouts would like to see, but it’s something evaluators expect to improve with continued maturation and strength. He’s always hit the ball with authority, especially for his size.
With a lean, wiry frame, Carlson projects to add weight and impact as he develops and could eventually blossom into above-average raw power, though he’s made it an emphasis to stay athletic and twitchy at this stage in his career.
Carlson has a very strong arm that rivals some of the better high school shortstops of the last decade. It’s comfortably plus and will play at the next level. Coupled with a soft glove and clean actions, Carlson has a chance at developing into at least an above-average defensive shortstop as a pro. It’s a shortstop frame with rangy actions and quick hands around the bag.
He’s got the best actions of any infielder in the class and is the best bet you’ll find to play shortstop in the big leagues in this draft class.
Carlson also pitches and features a high-spin breaking ball with big lateral action. He’s been up to 97 mph. Most believe his future is on the dirt. Carlson will be 19 years old on draft day.
Carlson’s biggest vice may be how tough he can be on himself when he’s struggling. He can get down on himself and it comes out in his body language at times. It’s a part of his game and his mental fortitude has improved over the last twelve months, but being the competitor he is it may always be a small part of how he ticks.
Shortstops hailing from Southern California are always a hot commodity in every draft and Carlson fits right up there with most from the last half-decade. He’s even a bit twitchier than some of those that preceded him. He’ll be a hot name in July and could come off the board inside the top 10 picks.
Arquette made his way from the island of Hawaii and became something of a star at the University of Washington. He transferred to Oregon State for his draft-eligible 2025 campaign after UW’s Head Coach Jason Kelly left for Texas A&M following the 2024 season.
Arquette is long and projectable on the dirt and may ultimately shift to third base if he adds more physicality. As things stand he’s a reasonably rangy infielder considering his size and a steady second baseman with a solid arm and nimble actions. He’ll get more of a full-time look at shortstop for Oregon State in 2025.
Arquette showcases a strong internal clock with soft hands and balance on the infield. Skeptics have long looked at his size as reason to believe he’s destined for the outfield. He’s continuously proved those doubters wrong.
Arquette’s bat took mammoth strides during his sophomore year and it now represents one of the more complete offensive profiles in the country. There are bat-to-ball skills and huge exit velocities, both of which were shown off on the Cape too.
Arquette has a steady approach and a willingness to use right field, a rare trait for players his size. It’s raw power that plays into right-center field with backspinning batted balls that cut through thick, wet Pacific Northwest air. If there’s one nitpicking trait scouts would like to see Arquette improve as the Draft nears it would be his patience at the plate. More specifically late in counts.
He’s in no rush to take walks and can get over-anxious on spin. Still, that’s a rather minor wart on a scouting report covered with above-average tools throughout.
Off the field, Arquette is the epitome of an island boy. He lives life at a slow tempo and is easygoing. He’ll turn on that competitive fire between the lines, but it’s a slower heartbeat and an even-keel personality elsewhere.
The 95th percentile outcome on a player like Arquette is something of a Troy Tulowitzki. A floor outcome could be someone like Mike Morse.
He’ll need to further prove he’s a shortstop through and through should he hope to land those lofty comparisons when July rolls around.
Cunningham is a pure hitter with the ability to cover every quadrant of the zone and a willingness to shoot the ball to all fields. He has a quiet, calm demeanor in the box and his left-handed swing really projects to hit moving forward.
While he’s willing to expand the zone at modest levels, his quick hands and adjustable barrel skills ensure he isn’t exposed when reaching for pitches outside of the black. There’s burgeoning power here, however, Cunningham’s frame is close to physically maxed and he’s unlikely to ever develop into anything more than average raw power.
Cunningham has one of the most decorated and consistent amateur baseball careers of anyone available in this Draft. He starred for Team USA’s 18u roster in 2024.
Cunningham isn’t the biggest guy on the field, but what he lacks in size he more than makes up for in box scores and on the base paths. He is a plus runner and is a threat on the bases. He also has quiet actions on the infield and the above-average arm strength necessary to stay on the left side of the dirt. Cunningham will be 19 on draft day.
While Jackson Holliday was the prize in the 2022 MLB Draft, scouts got a first-hand look at his brother in their trips to Stillwater. The second-born of Matt Holliday‘s children, Ethan is far more physical than his older brother with huge raw power and a similarly beautiful left-handed stroke.
Still extremely young, Holliday already tops the scales at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds with broad shoulders and plenty of projection to go. There’s no question the raw power carries heavy value here and he should generate even more raw power as his frame matures.
Holliday is one of the top high school bats at this stage despite a streaky summer where he struggled to show his impact in games. There was more swing and miss than scouts were accustomed to seeing too, especially when exposed to velocity.
Holliday has a steeper move into the hitting zone, works underneath the baseball, and works hard to catch it out in front. The result is whiffs on elevated velocity and mis-hits if he’s late. He’ll need some swing adjustments at the next level if he’s to reach his ceiling of what some believe is a high-average, slugging middle-of-the-order bat.
It’s a swing not too dissimilar from Bryce Rainer a year ago. You’d be hard-pressed to find many scouts who aren’t bullish on an eventual rebound considering the physical tools and pedigree. Holliday still posts minuscule chase rates and hits the ball in the air nearly 60 percent of the time across a big summer sample. He can get the ball in the air, but catching the fat part of the bat has been a struggle against better arms.
You buy the tools here and trust in the development. Remember, his brother Jackson had a sluggish summer in 2021 too before blossoming into the top prospect in the sport.
Holliday is the starting shortstop at Stillwater High School, however, he’s played mostly third base on the tournament circuit. Because of his size and physical projection, most scouts believe he’ll end up at the hot corner long term. He’s a fringe-average runner and doesn’t project to grow into much more speed as a pro.
It’s special arm talent with some slapping 70-grade arm strength grades on the player. The hands are solid, if not above average. He should develop into at least an above-average defender at third base.
He’s got some work to do in the spring to keep the lofty top-5 pick expectations. There are a number of outcomes for a player like Holliday when all is said and done. If the tools and talent come together he could end up as productive as a player like Matt Carpenter or Eric Chavez. If the swing-and-miss persists, a Ryan McMahon trajectory may be more fitting.
HOMETOWN: Fort Cobb, Oklahoma
HEIGHT: 6-1
WEIGHT: 175
BAT/THROW: B-R
A re-class from 2026, Eli Willits is a true switch-hitter in every sense of the word. Some guys fake it hitting from both sides and struggling from one side or the other. That’s not the case here.
From the left side, Willits features a tight, compact swing with quick hands and twitchy hips. He uses the whole field and has an adjustability with the barrel that few can match.
There are some moving parts in the load and some late barrel tilt that could test his ability to handle higher velocity arms, but to this point, he’s impressed in tournament settings and has had little issue squaring up fastballs in premium settings. Right now it’s fringy raw power with ringing gap power.
That said, Willits has a lean frame with the hands and projection you look for in a guy who could ultimately get to average or better raw power. From the right side, it’s a bit more bat speed with louder results and a bit more impact to all fields. The hit tool projects better from the left side, but he’s far from a liability as a right-handed hitter. He clearly projects to be able to hit from both sides of the plate going forward.
Interesting offensive tools from both sides of the plate.
Willits looks every bit the part of a future shortstop, centerfielder or up-the-middle defender too. He’s a rangy defender who has demonstrated the ability to get to any ball.
As a shortstop, he excels when coming in on the grass and making the play on slow-rollers in front of him. He can get his body into the athletic positions necessary to make just about every throw. He’s also an above-average runner with long strides and a smooth gait that projects to hold deep into professional ball. He’s also shown plenty capable of playing a strong centerfield if teams want to give him a run at the ‘8’.
He takes some of the stronger routes in the class out there and demonstrates solid spatial awareness around the wall and warning track.
Perhaps the one nitpick analysts and some evaluators have on the entire profile is a general lack of explosive, twitchy athleticism. Willits doesn’t stand out when it comes to force-plate testing or 30-/60-yard dash workouts. Skeptics of those results will point to a low ceiling from an impact perspective. Those bullish of his profile will point to his extraordinarily young age as a means to reason a jump in explosiveness and strength on the horizon.
Willits has a chance to be one of the first players off the board if he adds a bit more impact at the plate. The tools are here for a special player. As noted, he will be extremely young for the draft, just 17.7 years old when he’s selected.
There’s an argument to be made that Marek Houston is the most decorated defensive shortstop in the country, surely among those who are draft-eligible this July. He’s got some of the better actions at the position in the college ranks. Houston can make plays coming in on the grass, as well as moving to his left look easy. His solid-to-above-average arm strength is capable of making the occasional highlight reel play moving to his right as well, though he’s not innately gifted in that respect. He projects an above-average to plus defender as a professional.
The athlete and the bat get strong reviews with strong contact and chase rates Houston is a hitter in the box through and through. While the raw power has been 30-grade at best for much of his collegiate career, Houston tacked on 15 pounds of muscle this winter and now looks capable of achieving double-digit homers with a wood bat at the next level. It might not ever be bigger than 40-grade raw power, but it’s coming along.
Houston is an above-average runner who should provide some value on the bases. He’s been much, much more aggressive on that front in 2025.
The story for Houston will be just how much impact he can show with the bat as July approaches. Not from a homer perspective, but in the exit velocities. If scouts buy the potential for slug going forward, he’s got a chance to hear his name called in the top five picks. He’s not too dissimilar from a player like Dansby Swanson at this stage, who went No. 1 overall in 2015.
Doyle was a steady member of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers rotation in 2023 and continued to get better as the year went on. He transferred to Ole Miss in 2024 but only stayed at the school for one year before heading to Tennessee. The stuff exploded on Rocky Top.
Doyle has been up to 99 and will sit 94-96 at his absolute best with considerable carry and arm-side run. It’s a devastating fastball and coming from the left side makes it all that much more impressive. The fastball is without question a ‘plus’ offering and it’ll flash 70-grade traits when he’s hot with fuzz through the zone.
Doyle lives at the top of the zone and is extremely effective because of it. While the velocity and shapes are both exquisite, Doyle is just an average athlete on the mound and only generates moderate extension down the bump.
Professional hitters may pick up the fastball out of his hand better than the current competition. However, that won’t dilute the fact it’s at least a plus pitch. Commanding the heater isn’t Doyle’s strong suit, but he’s usually around the zone and walks haven’t been much of an issue. Putting the pitch where he wants is fringy.
The secondaries are more of a work in progress, but they’ve shown enough to project effectiveness to the next level. His splitter and cutter/slider are both effective, the splitter especially. The splitter has a chance to become a plus pitch if shapes alone are any indication of future projection. They’re not, but if Doyle can rein in commanding that pitch it’s got quite a ceiling.
The cutter is short with firm, slippery tilt. It’s extremely effective getting hitters off the fastball and Doyle has shown the ability to keep it under right-handers’ hands and back-door it as well. There’s also a bigger slider with considerable tilt and sweeping action.
Doyle struggles to command his bag of pitches but the stuff is so big he generates whiffs in bunches.
Doyle does have a deeper arm action and there’s some effort with his delivery leading to the aforementioned command shakiness. There’s a lot to like with this arm, even if it ultimately ends up a high-leverage reliever.
The thing that immediately stands out about Hernandez at this stage is his mature pitch-ability and his natural talent to pound the strike zone. He’ll work into a lather and sit 92-95 as the innings build but Hernandez will touch 100 mph in the early goings.
It’s not the most dynamic fastball shape, but there’s generally some carry that allows the heater to work elevated. When left at the bottom of the zone or in the heart of the plate Hernandez has struggled to generate whiffs with his pure velocity.
His best weapon currently is a low-80s outlier changeup that he executes well by killing spin and creating depth off his fastball tunnel. It’s likely a ‘plus’ pitch when all is said and done and could end up a double-plus weapon if he’s eventually able to extract more value out of his fastball.
There’s a mid-80s slider with solid depth and some sweep as well. Hernandez has a track record against older bats and he gets outs. He may not end up the punch-out artist that his high school arm talent would naturally suggest, but he’s got a reasonably high floor in terms of high school pitching prospects.
When you consider the resume, the frame, the projection, and the present feel for the mound, there’s upside here for an impact righty at the next level. Martinez is one of the top prep arms in this class and has an argument as one of the better high school arms to come along in several years.
Hernandez will be 19 years old on draft day.
Summerhill is a long-levered, angular outfielder with a sweet, lofty left-handed swing and present game power largely due to his feel for backspinning the baseball. He’s peaked at 110 mph in terms of exit velocities, but proponents of the profile point toward his leaner frame with strength projection on the horizon as reason to believe there’s louder contact in the tank.
It’s a quiet swing with pull-side authority with almost zero holes in his stroke. Summerhill posts elite whiff rates and is among the best in the country in terms of in-zone swing-outcome production. There’s a whole lot of polish here and there’s more impact on the way as evidenced by his 6-foot-3-inch athletic frame.
Summerhill has a solid-average arm that can play in any outfield spot, however is not an asset in right field. He’s also presently an above-average runner but he occasionally clocks plus run times. His frame projects a potential 6-foot-4-inch, 215-pound slugger in due time as he matures into his professional physical form.
Summerhill has played centerfield for the Cats and boasts impressive range and reads. He’s got centerfield tools and could stick up the middle of the field if he doesn’t get too physical over his next few formative strength-gain years.
All he’s done to this point is hit in Tucson and his profile continues to trend upward. He’s one of the few college bats in this years’ class with middle-of-the-field traits and five-tool potential.
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