After seven consecutive appearances in the ALCS, the pennant machine that is the Houston Astros operation hit a speed bump this year. It was remarkably the first time they’d missed playing in the League Championship Series since 2016, an American League record. Despite falling short of their lofty goals, Houston still managed to win another American League West crown and saw some positive developments in their farm system.
Outfielder Jacob Melton heads a farm system that lacks star upside, but the emergence of guys like Zach Dezenzo, A.J. Blubaugh, and perhaps most importantly Anderson Brito, point toward another steady stream of reinforcements on the way to Space City.
DEVELOPMENTS
The Astros farm system has seen something of a cataclysmic exit of high-ceiling prospects in recent years by way of trades. The team has moved OF Joey Loperfido, OF Drew Gilbert, OF Ryan Clifford, RHP Jake Bloss, SS Will Wagner, and C Will Wagner in exchange for RHP Justin Verlander, RHP Kendall Graveman and LHP Yusei Kikuchi.
The Verlander and Graveman acquisitions have done little for Houston, though one could argue Kikuchi is heavily responsible for the organization’s ability to capture another division title in 2024. Those departures have left the farm system reeling. Still, there are some names to celebrate and look forward to in the immediacy.
Dezenzo has been nothing short of a scouting and player development victory. A 12th-round selection in 2022, Dezenzo had serious warts in his offensive game coming out of Ohio State. But he’s a good athlete with a strong, physical frame and the Astros believed they could unlock what he was capable of. And they certainly have.
Dezenzo reached the big leagues in less than two years and hit .242/.277/.371 this season for Houston in just 62 plate appearances. He figures to handle a part-time role for the team in 2025, though it’s possible he could carve out a bigger opportunity in left field or at third base if the team doesn’t find a more permanent option with the expected departure of Alex Bregman.
Brito is also a name that exploded onto the scene in 2024. A well-regarded 19-year-old entering the season, he notched 82 punch-outs in 53.2 innings this season across three levels in the low minors.
Brito’s fastball jumped to 96 mph this year and his slider took an incremental jump too. Brito is smaller-statured and may ultimately end up throwing flames out of the bullpen, but he’s a name to look forward to tracking in 2025.
QUESTIONS
Simply put, Houston needs to see one of their prized prospects at the top of their system take a more meteoric jump in 2025. As things currently stand, most believe Melton to be the only Top 100 prospect in the organization, and even he has considerable warts in his profile.
Melton, 24, slashed .253/.310/.426 across Double-A and Triple-A this season with 15 homers. He struck out just 23.5 percent of his at-bats and did add 30 stolen bases for good measure. Melton doesn’t have a carrying tool and projects an average offensive contributor as a big leaguer.
He’ll be 25 at the end of next season, so finding a role on the big league club in next summer will be important.
Houston has done a nice job drafting athletes in the Draft over the past couple of seasons and is waiting for some of those guys to take a jump in their development.
Infielder Brice Matthews, 22, was the teams’ first-round pick in 2023. He enjoyed a hot first-half of the season, but then fizzled quickly down the stretch as one could argue he was shoved too quickly up the ladder.
He played across four levels and got a taste of Triple-A pitching where he struggled to the tune of a .143/.250/.190 slash across twelve games. He would likely be best served starting the 2025 season at Double-A.
Outfielder Luis Baez, 20, will be an important cog in Houston’s farm system in 2025 if they hope to take a step forward as a unit. He reached Double-A in 2024 and posted an impressive .263/.300/.479 line at High-A before his promotion.
It’s a power-over-hit profile with holes in his swing against spin, but his age and level certainly give him time to season and mature. He profiles as a right fielder at the next level and could be on the doorstep of a debut if/when Kyle Tucker leaves Houston in free agency.
ADDITIONS & SUBTRACTIONS
The Astros did well in acquiring high-floor big-league prospects in the 2024 Draft, led by catcher Walker Janek out of Sam Houston in round one. Janek struggled this summer in his pro debut, but his defensive chops are strong and scouts believe in his bat.
Outfielder Joseph Sullivan was selected in the seventh round and provides speed on the bases and in the field. Evaluators are bullish on the organization unlocking more offensive value here over time.
Houston identified and targeted interesting pitchers that should translate well to pro ball, too.
Third-round right-hander Ryan Forcucci is a low-slot starter who can touch 97 with a wipeout slider when he’s right. He’s recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Fourth-round right-hander Parker Smith can tickle the mid-90s and has one of the better changeups from the 2024 Draft.
Watch out for 12th-rounder Ryan Verdugo, too. He was expected to go to Kentucky for his junior year, but signed with Houston instead. It’s another unique release profile with a potential plus fastball and a breaking ball that could turn a corner in professional development.
In a summer trade with the Yankees, Houston acquired RHP Kelly Austin and international bonus pool money in exchange for LHP Caleb Ferguson.
The Astros traded away 2024 rookie OF Joey Loperfido and 2B Will Wagner to acquire Yusei Kikuchi.
GRADUATIONS (since the start of ’24)
Trey Cabbage, OF
Spencer Arrighetti, RHP
Tayler Scott, RHP
Shawn Dubin, RHP
Arrighetti turned a corner in the majors the second half (3.31 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 29.5% K, 8.4% BB after June 25).
Scott, 32, covered 68.2 innings in 2024 as a long-middle arm, posting mixed results.
BIG-LEAGUE RADAR (yet to debut)
Jacob Melton, OF
Zach Cole, OF
Luis Baez, OF
A.J. Blubaugh, RHP
Jose Fleury, RHP
Colton Gordon, LHP
James Hicks, RHP
Alimber Santa, RHP
Michael Knorr, RHP
Ethan Pecko, RHP
Rhett Kouba, RHP
Trey Dombrowski, LHP
Miguel Ulloa, RHP
Melton has a chance to be the club’s centerfielder in 2025 while Cole is more of a late-2025 possibility.
Blubaugh is a three-pitch arm with a chance to power up in a full-time relief role, but he’s ramped up as a starter for depth.
Santa has a huge fastball — upper 90s — and began finding the zone a lot in 2024. It appears inevitable he sees Minute Maid Park in a relief role if he takes another step forward.
SCOUT SAYS
“It’s pretty empty down here, especially thinking back five or six years. There’s not a lot of upside and I haven’t seen as much as a mid-rotation (arm) anywhere near the majors. It’s putting a lot on Eric (Nielsen) to continue the magic of Brent Strom, and he’s done it so far with (Ronel) Blanco, Hunter Brown, and (Spencer) Arrighetti, but everyone’s getting hurt and there’s a lot more being put on the shoulder of some guys that aren’t as talented as they wish.
“(Zach) Cole may be their best chance at an all-star, but Jacob Melton can play and should be able to help now.”
CHURCHILL: Astros pay steep price for rental
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