The Cincinnati Reds have graduated plenty of decorated talent over the last couple of years leaving their farm system a bit thinner than what we’ve gotten used to. Still, it’s a farm built the right way.
Chockfull of pitching at the top and exceptional athletes laying in the weeds behind them, Cincinnati has plenty to be excited about on the horizon.
It’s a club being built the right way and that should pay dividends in 2025 and beyond.
There is, however, a hole in this system that must be addressed sooner rather than later…
DEVELOPMENTS
What the Reds have done the past four years to push their farm system from among the worst in baseball to a very solid one — despite several graduations (Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, Tyler Stephenson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer) is remarkable.
The club made key trades to acquire (Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo, et al), but the club did Yeoman’s work in the draft to add an impressive collection of talent, including 2024 first-round pick Chase Burns, 2023 first-round pick Rhett Lowder, and infielder Cam Collier, the club’s 2022 first-round pick,
Marte and McLain are no longer prospects, but figure to serve as core pieces to a contention window in The Queen City. Their recent success in development has set them up for an opportunity to compete in the National League Central.
One can surmise the Reds have the best gathering of young talent in the division, and there are several prospects within two years of assisting the efforts.
| LEVEL | TEAM | W-L | TOP PROSPECT |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | Louisville | 67-82 | Chase Petty, RHP |
| AA | Chattanooga | 45-90 | Edwin Arroyo, SS |
| A+ | Dayton | 74-58 | Sal Stewart, 2B |
| A | Daytona | 64-64 | Alfredo Duno, C |
| R | Reds | 31-29 | Tyson Lewis, SS |
| DSL | Rojos | 25-30 | Naibel Mariano, SS |
| DSL | Reds | 37-18 | Adolfo Sanchez, OF |
QUESTIONS
The excitement and helium of catcher Alfredo Duno has continually been stymied by ailments he cannot seem to shake. After not catching in 2023 due to arm issues, he caught just 21 games in 2024 after suffering a nasty broken rib in May.
There’s zero questioning the offensive upside here but if he cannot stay healthy enough to catch the player profile as a whole takes a considerable hit. He’ll only be 19 years old in 2025, but with 186.1 innings behind the plate, Cincinnati would surely like to see several hundred frames back there next summer.
Offensively, Duno posted a 29% strikeout rate in 2024 as a teenager. You’d like to see that trend down as the game-power ticks up.
In a similar vein, Collier has seen his frame get bigger and stronger at an unsustainable rate for a player hoping to stay at third base as a professional. There’s never been any doubt to the arm talent at the hot corner, but Collier’s lateral mobility has taken a step back in the last 12 months. He’s just 20 and could physically mature further in a negative direction if he’s not more diligent about staying lean and light on his feet.
Collier has all the tools necessary to play first base, but again, that significantly impacts his profile. The Reds are hoping he can fit into the Rafael Devers mold for the first handful of years of his professional career and then eventually shift to first base in his late 20s, but we’ll see if that track isn’t accelerated over the next two seasons as Collier arrives into the high minors.
Just like Duno, Arroyo has also struggled to post. He missed the entire 2024 season with a torn labrum in his shoulder but is expected back to full strength in 2025. He’ll likely head back to Double-A as a 21-year-old and could earn some late-summer playing time on the infield if his game comes back as quick as the Reds’ brass is hoping it will.
He still has much to prove on the offensive side of the ball, but Arroyo should have no issues staying in the middle of the diamond.
A common theme here, third baseman Sal Stewart‘s 2024 ended in July and he’s working to get back to full strength for the 2025 season. He’s a big-bodied guy who could stay at third base, though the trajectory points toward first base. To his credit, Stewart was tearing up High-A before he got hurt slashing .279/.391/.454 with eight homers.
He boasted a sublime approach at the plate and projects as a guy who should run a high on-base percentage when he eventually debuts as early as 2026.
The Reds will certainly look for bounce-back campaigns from guys like Carlos Jorge, Adolfo Sanchez, and Blake Dunn too. Jorge and Sanchez are at the early stage of their careers but scuffled through uninspiring seasons last summer.
Dunn did get called up to the big leagues and played in 19 games receiving just 26 at-bats. Dunn has a hole in his game as is evidenced by his .240/.337/.354 line at Triple-A last season. But he is just one year removed from a .312/.425/.522 line across High-A and Double-A. Hopefully, he can rekindle some of that magic in 2025.
He will likely be playing on a shorter leash than most at 26 years old next season.
They’ll also hope to get their first look at Ty Floyd in 2025 after the former LSU ace missed the 2024 season with a shoulder injury. He is yet to throw a professional pitch after being selected in the first round in 2023.
ADDITIONS & SUBTRACTIONS
The Reds acquired infielder Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays in a deal that sent pitching prospect Chris McElvain to Toronto in March.
Cincinnati got active again in July by acquiring outfielder Austin Slater from the Giants in exchange for southpaw Alex Young.
After signing Frankie Montas to a one-year deal in January, they flipped him to Milwaukee at the trade deadline in exchange for RHP Jakob Junis and OF Joey Wiemer. The latter was recently included in a deal that sent RHP Brady Singer to Cincinnati and Jonathan India to the Royals.
The Reds also acquired 3B Davis Wendzel from the Rangers at the deadline for cash.
The Reds selected Burns with the No. 2 overall pick this past July, then selected high school SS Tyson Lewis (2), LSU RHP Luke Holman (CompB), OF Mike Sirota (3), 2B Peyton Stovall (4) and LHP Tristan Smith (5) with later picks.
GRADUATIONS
Rece Hinds, OF
Dunn, OF
Carson Spiers, RHP
Hinds was terrific in limited time spread throughout the summer months in 2024, smashing five homers in 51 plate appearances.
Spiers flashed in multiple roles but struggled to keep the ball in the yard.
BIG-LEAGUE RADAR
Chase Petty, RHP
Jorge, UT
Zach Maxwell, RHP
Stewart, IF
Hector Rodriguez, OF
It’s not a large group but the above five names have a chance to make a significant difference for the Reds in 2024.
SCOUT SAYS
“(The Reds) have a method and they don’t veer from it. It’s served them well over the years. The farm isn’t really the thing here, though. They need those young bucks on the (26-man roster) to go. It’s time to go. They’re not wide-eyed rookies anymore. That core is the here and now and probably the immediate future. A couple of arms that’ll help next season but what they’ve got is already up. Lots of athletes and lots of talent. It’s gotta click this year.”
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