The 2024 Preseason Top 30 lists are built around the idea of certainty and future Role. Similar to industry projection systems such as Future Value (FV), Overall Future Potential (OFP), and Grade, Role is a way to describe to what degree a player will add value to his organization at peak.
Our scale is a bit more conservative than other grading systems. We take into account recent seasonal performance, proximity to impact, metric/data analysis, and industry conversations to build a case for the most likely outcome for any given player.
It is important to note these Role labels are fluid and can change as a player moves up the developmental ladder. It is not uncommon for a player to change his role projection over even one month. Players jump from a Role 35 to a Role 40 quite quickly.
Things like mechanical adjustments and physical maturation can alter a player’s projection seemingly overnight. Players change. Keep that in mind.
Below is our Role chart used to place future projection on players.
| ROLE | DESCRIPTION |
|---|---|
| 20 | No organizational value. Non-prospect. |
| 30 | Organizational value, filler. Likely peaks at Triple-A or below. |
| 35 | Potential up-and-down, Quad-A prospect. Has some tools. Development necessary to secure prolonged MLB role. |
| 40 | Back-up at MLB level. No. 5 starter on non-competitive team. Depth. |
| 45 | Potential starter on contender. Bench player for championship-level team. |
| 50 | Starter on a championship-level team. Lacks star ceiling. Steady. Potential No. 4 starting pitcher. |
| 55 | Potential all-star. Some impact. Above average big-league regular. Mid-rotation starter on a contender. |
| 60 | All-star level player. Impact. Middle-of-the-order bat. No. 2 starter on good team. |
| 70 | Perennial all-star. Will contend for seasonal awards. Potential MVP/Cy Young upside. No. 1 starting pitcher. Ace. |
| 80 | Hall of Fame upside. Generational. MVP/Cy Young Favorite some years. Organizational pillar who can carry an entire franchise at times. |
You will not find players with a sub-50 Role on our Top 100 Prospect List. You are also unlikely to find any sub-35 Role players on a Top 30 board. Generally, organizations will have at least 30 players with big-league projection.
All rankings and roles by Joe Doyle
Player notes by Jason A. Churchill
The Giants have struggled to generate a consistent pipeline through the minors since Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford broke through 10-15 years ago.
They do have upside at the very top and sprinkled throughout their system, but there’s a lack of probably outside their top 10, and they may not have an average big leaguer outside their top 5.
| RANK | PLAYER | POS | ROLE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Harrison | LHP | 60 |
| 2 | Bryce Eldridge | OF | 55 |
| 3 | Marco Luciano | SS | 50 |
| 4 | Carson Whisenhunt | LHP | 50 |
| 5 | Walker Martin | SS | 45 |
| 6 | Reggie Crawford | LHP/1B | 45 |
| 7 | Mason Black | RHP | 45 |
| 8 | Hayden Birdsong | RHP | 45 |
| 9 | Grant McCray | OF | 45 |
| 10 | Rayner Arias | OF | 45 |
Kyle Harrison is one of the best left-handed pitching prospects, featuring a 70-grade fastball up to 97 mph with tons of run, He throws from a low three-quarters slot, helping a vertical slider with some dception, and his changeup is consistently above-average to plus.
He’s a good athlete but scouts don’t like the delivery much and he’s struggled to repeat it and throws strikes. More command and he may be a No. 2 starter. Until then he’s capable of throwing out 160 innings of at least league-average ball based on his ability to dominate at-bats with his fastball-changeup combo, so he should start the season with the Giants — or at least head north to join them early in the year — after debuting last summer.
Bryce Eldridge, a 6-foot-7, 230-pound two-way talent in high school, was the club’s first-round pick last July and he brings big power to the organization.
How much defensive value he can offer remains to be seen but he;ll get a chance to play right field where his 70 arm plays easily.
The risk with players this tall is a long swing that leads to too much swing-and-miss, and very few players in history have been able to hang. But scouts tend to like Edlridge’s swing and give him a chance to hit .260 with 40 homers on the upside.
Marco Luciano recovered from a back injury and raked in Double-A at age 21, but then scuffled severely in the majors. He has plus power that could reach 30 homers and he probably has to move to the hot corner, but it appears he’s not quite ready to deal with the wicked breaking balls the bigs have to offer — he whiffed on 64% of his swings on them last season with the Giants.
If Luciano can handle second base he still has a chance to be a star, but even at third the power will play if he can make enough contact to get it.
Southpaw Carson Whisenhunt profiles to the middle of the rotation, using a 92-94 mph fastball and average two-plane curveball to set up a plus changeup that may end up one of the better changeups in the game.
Oddly, Whisenhunt struggled a bit versus lefty hitters, but that’s mostly about his developmental process than anything.
Grant McCray is a speedy outfielder who will stick in center and may end up with a bit of a power-over-hit attack at the plate, despite not likely exceeding the 15-homer mark.
He’ll draw walks and steal bases, but the swing-and-miss could be the dealbreaker.
| RANK | PLAYER | POS | ROLE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Vaun Brown | OF | 40 |
| 12 | Aeverson Arteaga | SS | 40 |
| 13 | Keaton Winn | RHP | 40 |
| 14 | Landen Roupp | RHP | 40 |
| 15 | Wade Meckler | 2B | 40 |
| 16 | Eric Silva | RHP | 40 |
| 17 | Diego Velasquez | 2B/SS | 35 |
| 18 | Joe Whitman | LHP | 35 |
| 19 | Carson Seymour | RHP | 35 |
| 20 | Trevor McDonald | RHP | 35 |
| 21 | R.J. Dabovich | RHP | 35 |
| 22 | Cole Waites | RHP | 35 |
| 23 | Adrian Sugastey | C | 35 |
| 24 | Cole Foster | SS | 35 |
| 25 | William Kempner | RHP | 35 |
| 26 | Luke Shliger | C | 35 |
| 27 | Ryan Murphy | RHP | 35 |
| 28 | Ryan Reckley | SS | 35 |
| 29 | Matt Mikulski | LHP | 35 |
| 30 | Maui Ahuna | SS | 35 |
Keaton Winn could help the Giants in the rotation in 2024 with a big fastball into the upper 90s and a plus splitter. He throws strikes and has a chance at an average or better slider, making one wonder why he was pitching out of the bullpen at Iowa Western.
Joe Whitman‘s stock rose quickly last spring before the Giants took him with the No. 69 overall pick. He’s up to 96 mph and features a plus slider and changeup that both are assisted by above-average command.
He may not miss enough bats to be more than a No. 4, but there may be more velocity in his 6-foot-5, 210-pound frame, which could bump his future role up half a grade or more.
Maui Ahuna is a speed and defense infielder with the frame to add strength, stay at short, and develop some power.
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