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Today was Day 1 of the MLB Draft Combine, and I’m going to be about as clear as I can when I say this.
I listen to people. I read the writers. I watch evaluators and scouts, and everybody else talking about what happened on the field. I simply see it through a different lens.
That’s not a criticism of anyone else’s opinions. There are a lot of voices in this game, and that’s a good thing. Baseball is better because of different perspectives, different experiences, and different thought processes. I don’t believe any one group has a monopoly on understanding the game. I just happen to evaluate it differently.
Most people will write about batting practice, huge tools, big power, and massive fastballs. And yes, there was plenty of that Tuesday. Every player in the Combine can play. Every player in the Combine has value.
But when I look at the field, I see things a little differently.
I see guys throwing really hard and missing the strike zone by a lot. I see players reaching back, trying to find extra velocity because there are radar guns behind home plate. I see long swings and approaches that simply don’t translate.
None of that moves me. And frankly, it doesn’t move most of the decision-makers sitting in the stands, either.
Every player here is still a kid.
Comparisons are a part of scouting and always will be, but ultimately, these players are themselves. Sometimes that’s pretty good. Sometimes it’s really good.
So I spent my day bearing down on skills.
Tools are great. Skills play.
Baseball is littered with guys who throw 100 miles per hour and don’t have jobs because they can’t throw strikes. It’s littered with guys who have huge power and can’t hit enough to access it. Guys who can run but can’t steal bases. Freak athletes who never put it together. Underachievers who are just short of the mark.
And then there are players in the middle of all that who can simply play. Those are the guys that matter.
Offensively, I saw four or five swings today that mattered. That’s it.
I’m not talking about huge separation, violent hacks, or batting-practice home runs. I’m talking about repeatable approaches. I’m talking about guys who got after it. I’m talking about hitters who competed.
Defensively, I watched players compete. On the mound, I looked for one thing: Who threw strikes? Because everybody sees the best fastball boards.
Who wants to talk about the guys who actually threw strikes?
Pitchers
Righthander Ethan Wachsmann from Grandview High School in Aurora, Colorado, showed exactly why clubs continue to bear down on him. There’s arm strength, athleticism, and projection. The ingredients are obvious. Like many high school power arms, however, there is substantial bullpen risk because of the present strike-throwing profile and the developmental runway ahead of him.
Georgia star Dylan Vigue, another righty, also flashed why evaluators remain intrigued. There is stuff. There is ability. There is enough there to dream on. But like so many arms with premium velocity and stuff, the separator becomes whether the arsenal consistently works in the strike zone. At present, there is substantial bullpen risk.
Tyler Putnam, from Battle High School in Columbia, Missouri, was another right-handed arm that was easy to notice. The athleticism and arm talent are there, and there is plenty to like at 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds. But at this stage, the conversation becomes less about what the radar gun says and more about strike-throwing and execution. There is substantial bullpen risk with Putnam, too.
Grayson Willoughby, from Trinity High School in Louisville, Kentucky, possesses the type of arm strength that will continue to attract attention. He has present stuff and physicality, but again, like many of the hard throwers on Day 1, there is substantial bullpen risk as the command and overall profile continue to develop.
Walsh Jesuit High School (Barberton, Ohio) right-hander Shawn Sullivan also showed why clubs keep following him. The velocity and overall raw talent are there. The ingredients for professional baseball exist. But once again, it comes back to throwing enough strikes and proving the entire package can hold together over time. At present, there is significant risk of a reliever profile.
Then there were the guys who threw strikes.
Landon Brown, a right-hander from Iowa Colony High School in Rosharon, Texas, has reached 100 miles per hour this year. He’s pitched comfortably at 94-97 mph and generally sits around 95, which, by the way, is plenty for an 18-year-old. He also has a plus slider.
More importantly, he threw strikes today. He was 91-93 mph and filled the zone.
Why? Because he’s thrown about 60 innings this year. Every one of them has been high stress because every inning he throws matters. He also played a position throughout the season when he wasn’t on the mound.
He didn’t need to throw 100 today. He certainly didn’t need to throw baseballs off the backstop. He needed to show his arsenal, demonstrate command, and prove he could live in the strike zone. Control and command are different things. Brown showed both.
The other arm that stood out today in that same way was Kaiden McCarthy, a reclassified right-hander and one of the younger players in the class.
I’d seen him once or twice in passing and, admittedly, hadn’t paid much attention because he was younger. Someone I trust mentioned his name to me previously.
That recommendation turned out to be pretty wise. This kid is real.
Yes, he had the velocity. But more importantly, he was consistently in the strike zone with high velocity, high intent, and a controllable delivery. He has three plus pitches.
It’s probably more control than command right now, but it’s more than enough. Unlike many of the other power arms in attendance, I don’t see substantial bullpen risk here. He profiles as a starter to me. He’s someone who should be taking the ball for a long time.
Hitters
Magnolia Heights C/3B Cole Prosek can flat-out rake. Those were very good swings.
The approach was repeatable. He played in the game that night. He’s fearless. He only wants to play baseball. He hustles and competes. That’s the type of player you move forward with.
Last year, Kaysen Cunningham did something similar. He came into this event with something to prove. He was a first-round talent the whole way and, by playing in this game, separated himself rather than blending into the crowd. He ended up going No. 18 to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Sawyer Strosnider from TCU took some very good swings and showed pull-side power. I wrote about him a year ago when I saw him at the Big 12 Tournament, and nothing I’ve seen has changed my evaluation.
That’s a first-round bat. We’ll figure out where he ultimately plays defensively, but he can hit, and he has real strength.
Hoover High School (AL) OF/1B Will Adams repeated his swing as well as almost anybody in the ballpark today, maybe better than everyone except Prosek.
Line drives everywhere. Explosive approach. He can flat-out rake. He’s athletic, physical, and unquestionably a professional bat. I have a hard time seeing him get to LSU unless it’s simply the player’s preference to play in the SEC.
Fon du Lac High School catcher Jack Brenner reminds me of Craig Biggio.
Wisconsin kid. Great year. Future Stars Series player. Area Code player. Ultimate athlete. Nothing he did today dissuaded me from that comparison.
Judah Ota, from Hawaii, has big-league flow and the ball carries well off his bat. He has pull-side power, has grown into his physicality, and continues to grow into his athleticism.
He’s long-levered and projects as a performer. He needs at-bats. Maybe he gets them at Arkansas, but the opportunity is there for him to go high enough in this draft because he has real ability with the bat.
Interestingly, other than Brenner, all of the above bats are left-handed hitters.
I’m not saying other players didn’t swing it well. Those guys simply stood out.
As for the rest of the pitchers?
There was big velocity. Plenty of it. But there wasn’t nearly enough strike-throwing.
Day 1 here at the MLB Draft Combine reminded me of something baseball teaches over and over again:
Tools get attention. Skills win.
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