You’re going to have to excuse me for a second: Today was a pretty good day for the Future Stars Series family.
Twenty-five Future Stars Series alums were selected on Day 1 of the 2026 MLB Draft, including nine of the first 36 picks — the equivalent of this year’s first round. It took me a second or two to take that in.
What a day. Congrats to everyone.
We’re happy to have been a part of your journey.#WeGotNow @NB_Baseball @_JeremyBooth pic.twitter.com/FP6Pjl3pxB
— New Balance 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝖘 (@ftrstarsseries) July 11, 2026
It was such a special moment that I actually stopped posting the picks as they came off the board. None of the players were here with me, of course, as I’m in Philadelphia for the Draft and All-Star festivities, but hearing their names called was special. I’m incredibly proud of every one of them.
Now let’s get into what I saw from Day 1.
Over the last several years, we’ve watched the draft continue to evolve. One of the biggest changes has been the increasing influence of analysts in draft rooms. Analysts have more information, more responsibility, and more input than ever before. I’m not saying that’s good, and I’m not saying that’s bad.
What I am saying is that analysts generally don’t watch players the way scouts do. They evaluate spreadsheets, metrics, and models. Scouts evaluate human beings. Those are two different perspectives, and the best organizations blend both.
Most analytics — outside of a handful of newer predictive models — quantify things baseball people have evaluated subjectively for decades. The difference is that now those evaluations can be measured more consistently and compared across much larger sample sizes. That’s not a bad thing.
Better information leads to better decisions, particularly when you’re making multi-million-dollar investments. And make no mistake about it, draft picks are investments. Every organization is trying to understand both the risk and the reward better.
One of the biggest trends continues to be the increase in college players drafted each year. Of the 135 selections on Day 1, 99 are from college. There are four primary reasons for that.
First, college players are older. They’re simply closer to becoming major leaguers because they’re further along in their development.
Second, the college talent pool is much more controlled. The competition is more consistent, the sample sizes are larger, and evaluators have significantly more confidence projecting performance at that level than they do with high school players.
Third, technology has dramatically expanded the amount and quality of usable data available at the college level. Teams now have access to advanced metrics that simply weren’t available years ago.
Finally, all of those factors reduce risk. Reduced risk makes it easier for organizations to justify paying larger signing bonuses. Video, statistics, and playable game data are now available at unprecedented levels.
When we talk about “data,” we’re not talking about batting average and ERA anymore. We’re talking about swing-and-miss rates inside the strike zone. Chase percentage. Hard-hit percentage. Line-drive percentage. Fastball strike percentage. Breaking-ball strike percentage.
Pitch usage by count. Attack zones. Soft-contact rates. Decision quality.
And dozens of additional metrics that require sophisticated technology to capture accurately.
Technology continues to improve through systems like Hawk-Eye and SmartPark, making it easier than ever for clubs to evaluate players without physically being at the ballpark.
But here’s what’s important: The best organizations still trust scouts.
Scouts project ceilings. Scouts evaluate makeup. Scouts evaluate competitiveness. Scouts evaluate instincts. Scouts evaluate role. Scouts evaluate what a player can become — not simply what he currently is.
Data tells you what happened. Scouting helps tell you what might happen.
Yes, biomechanics, cognitive testing, movement analysis, and predictive modeling continue to improve future projections. But game performance metrics themselves are reactive. They describe the present. Scouting projects the future.
Another trend that continues across baseball — not just with one organization, but industry-wide — is the value placed on high-ceiling high school players who have played enough quality competition to generate meaningful data.
There are really only five or six events across the country that consistently provide that type of environment. Those events allow clubs to evaluate performance against elite competition while simultaneously measuring athleticism, upside, ceiling, health history, and projection.
Junior college players continue to face an uphill battle. The biggest reason is simple. Most junior colleges still don’t generate the same volume of playable game data available at the Division I level.
That is changing. It’s changing quickly.
Technology is rapidly finding its way into junior college baseball, and over the next several years I believe that gap will continue to shrink. For now, however, D-1 baseball overwhelmingly dominates the draft.
Organizations continue to prioritize players who consistently demonstrate:
• Hard contact
• Low swing-and-miss rates
• Quality strike-zone decisions
• Soft-contact suppression for pitchers
• Fastball strike percentage
• Consistent competitive performance
Perhaps the single biggest trend of all involves swing-and-miss.
For decades, swing-and-miss has been a concern in draft rooms.
Today, it’s become an even bigger red flag. As much as everyone talks about pitching getting better, I would actually argue something different. Pitching isn’t getting dramatically better.
Throwing is. Velocity continues to increase. Pitch shapes continue to improve. Training continues to evolve. But command? Command has actually declined. There’s a major difference between command and control.
Command is consistently locating pitches where you intend. Control is simply throwing strikes. Many pitchers today throw harder than ever, but they make more mistakes than pitchers from previous generations.
Mistake-prone pitchers create opportunities. And hitters who consistently make contact capitalize on those mistakes. At the same time, hitting itself has regressed.
Many baseball historians and longtime baseball people will point toward changes in offensive philosophy.
The Boston Red Sox seemingly acknowledged that reality this year by making significant changes to their hitting department and analytics personnel.
Regardless of the specific reasons, the result is clear. Hitters who simply don’t swing-and-miss have become increasingly valuable.
You cannot score while striking out. You cannot consistently win games while striking out. And frankly, it’s not an entertaining version of baseball.
Here’s another interesting reality that often gets overlooked: Impact hitters usually come from the very top of the draft.
Pitching comes from everywhere. You can find pitching throughout the draft. You can develop pitching after the draft. You can acquire pitching internationally. You can convert athletes into pitchers.
When you combine domestic development with the continued expansion of Latin American talent acquisition, organizations simply don’t need to spend premium picks exclusively chasing pitching. They can find arms capable of throwing hard throughout the draft. Then they develop them.
Meanwhile, impact hitters remain much more difficult to find later.
Those players disappear quickly. That’s why organizations continue to prioritize bats at the top of the board.
Those philosophies played out again today. They’re not unique to one organization. They’re industry-wide. Ironically, they’re more traditional than many people realize.
In many ways, we’re watching baseball experience a “Back to the Future” moment. The philosophies aren’t new. The emphasis has simply shifted.
Instead of building around high school projection alone, organizations are increasingly building around proven performance, supported by better data, better technology, and better information than the game ever has.
- BOOTH: MLB Draft Continues to Evolve - July 12, 2026
- BOOTH: Final Mock Draft - July 10, 2026
- BOOTH: Rumors, Draft Rooms, and the Chaos Before the No. 1 Pick - July 9, 2026
