Farm System Snapshot: Chicago Cubs

While the Chicago Cubs are yet to see the results bear fruit in terms of the win-loss record at the MLB level, the organization has slowly been stockpiling bats on the farm in recent years and now find themselves with a glut of sticks to deploy in 2025. The organization still appears thinner than it’d like to be from a pitching point of view, but a few sneaky arms drafted over the last couple of years could surface as impact contributors next summer.

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In some circles, Chicago is considered an assortment of players who don’t seem to gel well on the field. The reinforcements expected in 2025 should provide some glue and continuity to a lineup seeking consistency.

Who will break through in 2025? We have a name to keep an eye on.

DEVELOPMENTS

It seems as if the Cubs had a cookie-cutter 2024 campaign on the farm. Not a whole ton of super-high risers. Not many prospects cratered either. It was a reasonably even-keeled summer.

Matt Shaw continued to show why he’s a unanimous Top 50 prospect in the sport. He hit for power, limited his strikeouts, and pushed his OPS near .850 for much of the year.

The questions on his future defensive home remain, though scouts are a bit more bullish of late on his ability to play an average full-time third base as a pro. He heads into 2025 with much of the same stock he’s held since being drafted. He’ll be a Top-25 prospect in the sport in some circles.

Catcher Moises Ballesteros was probably the biggest epiphany of the season. A thick, squatty backstop, Ballesteros’ bat shined across Double-A and Triple-A over 124 games. His .289/.354/.471 slash is illuminated further by 19 homers and a sub-20 percent strikeout rate. He’s ready for the next level and is likely to platoon behind the plate. Scouts still question his ability to control the running game, however.

Outfielder Owen Caissie also enjoyed a solid summer at Triple-A Iowa where he pummeled 19 homers and saw his strikeout rate drop from 31 percent at Double-A in 2023 to 28.4 percent this year. He’s got nothing left to prove as a minor-league bat and will almost certainly see considerable playing time in Chicago in 2025 if he’s not traded this winter.

Outfield Kevin Alcantara got a cup of coffee with the big league team for three games toward the end of the season after impressing with a .278/.353/.428 line across 111 games at Double-A and Triple-A. He’s another sum-of-his-parts player who has a chance to eventually mature into a 20/20 threat at his peak.

Perhaps the player fans should be most excited about is third baseman Cam Smith. The no. 14 overall pick in the Draft, Smith skyrocketed up to Double-A after just 27 games across Class-A and High-A levels. He slashed .313/.396/.609 in 32 professional games this summer slugging seven homers along the way.

Smith will be a Top 100 prospect at FSS PLUS when our preseason Top 100 board drops. For our money, he’s the fourth-best prospect in the system. Closer to no. 2 than no. 5 too.

Cubs fans will have a chance to see Shaw, Caissie, Ballesteros, and Alcantara play at Wrigley next summer. And they’ll likely be joined at some point by utility man James Triantos and right-handed pitcher Cade Horton (if he can stay healthy).

And don’t count out Smith next summer either. It’s a big, loud wave arriving in 2025 and that’s something that can galvanize a team toward winning more baseball games.

Keep an eye on RHP Brandon Birdsell in 2025. He’s finally blossoming into the backend rotation arm that scouts loved in college. Nagging arm injuries and inconsistencies have always limited the hype and helium around his name, but no longer.

Birdsell pitched to a 3.91 ERA this summer at Double-A and Triple-A and punched 134 tickets in 135 innings. So long as he’s able to stay healthy and keep posting innings, he’s got a shot to reach his no. 4 starter ceiling and should flash the occasional loud outing thanks to his fastball quality.

QUESTIONS

Despite Caissie having a solid year in Triple-A and looking like a surefire major leaguer, the swing-and-miss in his game has yet to be matched with the kind of power that eases concerns about what kind of role he can be asked to play, especially since he’s a well below-average outfield glove and may end up at first.

He posted a 31.1% strikeout rate in Double-A and 28.4% this past season in Iowa. He does walk, and he has hit for some power, but there’s quite a bit of work to be done before he projects well against big-league pitching. He hangs well with lefties, however, and is just 22, so there’s time to improve his ability versus non-fastballs and perhaps play every day.

Shortstop Fernando Cruz signed for $4 million as a player with polish and advanced feel to hit, but his 25-game showing in the DSL didn’t go well in any aspect. He whiffed in 27% of his plate appearances, managed just five extra-base hits, and hit .215.

He’ll be 19 in January, so a quick turn in the right direction in 2025 will be welcomed.

Jaxon Wiggins, the club’s 2023 comp pick, showed good stuff in 2024 but struggled to throw strikes (14.2% BB) in his first action after having UCL surgery before the start of the 2023 college season. It’s not uncommon to take a while to get control and command back after such a procedure and rehab process, but there were questions about his ability to throw enough strikes to start before the injury.

ADDITIONS & SUBTRACTIONS

Infielder Jake SLaughter was the bait to land RHR Tyson Miller in May, then acquired LHR Jeff Belge for LHR Richard Loelady, but then things got busy for the club and their farm system took a small hit as a result.

To kick things off in late July, Infielder Josh Rivera and OF Yohendrick Pinango were sent to Toronto in exchange for RHR Nate Pearson. Then RHPs Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge acompaniied 3B Christopher Morel to Tampa for 3B Isaac Paredes.

Two days later, the Cubs swapped RHR Mark Leiter Jr. for RHP Jack Neely and 2B Ben Cowles in a deal with the New York Yankees.

GRADUATIONS

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
Shota Imanaga, LHP
Ben Brown, RHP
Jordan Wicks, LHP
Porter Hodge, RHP

Crow-Armstong showed the speed and defense expected of him, and he flashed at the plate in his first extended look at major-league pitching. It’s elite range, a plus arm, and elite speed. Once he finds a way to deal better with breaking balls he’ll have a chance to he a 4-win player in his sleep,

Imanaga, 31, was as advertised in 2024, covering 170-plus innings and pounding the zone.

Brown played a big role in the bullpen, posting above-average strikeout rates thanks to one of the best knuckle curveballs in baseball (51% whiff).

Hodge did his best Brown impression, posting a 31.7% strikeout rate, and matched Brown’s curveball with a dominant low-80s slider.

BIG-LEAGUE RADAR

Shaw, 3B
Caissie, OF
Horton, RHP
Ballesteros, C
Triantos, 2B/OF
Smith, 3B
Pablo Aliendo, C
Brett Bateman, OF
Christian Franklin, OF
Birdsell, RHP
Brody McCullough, RHP
Will Sanders, RHP
Cowles, 2B
Jonathon Long, 1B

SCOUT SAYS

“The last homegrown star for them was Kris Bryant. They’ve had some solid players come through, but not the yearly all-star type. That very well may change with Cameron Smith, and if he can hang around at second base Matt Shaw may end up the city’s next Ryne Sandberg. He’s really easy to like. The missing offense may be right there at the top (of the system).

“Dan Kantrovitz I think has really nailed his top picks, they have to be excited for that, and it’s going to show up on the field pretty soon.”