A new board means a new mock draft and here we are. Two months are in the books in college baseball and conference play is in full swing. A few guys are separating from the pack.
This mock comes with some intel but it is still almost exclusively conjecture and hypotheticals. It does, however, lend some light into how the draft board may play out as you work later into the first round.
EDITOR'S NOTE: The following rankings and evaluations by FSS PLUS are based on subjective analysis and industry sources, and do not influence, are not influenced by, or are affiliated with the opinions and reports of Future Stars Series scouting and development staff.
1. Cleveland Guardians
Nick Kurtz, 1B -- Wake Forest
HOMETOWN: Lancaster, PA
HEIGHT: 6-6
WEIGHT: 230
BAT/THROW: L-L
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW:Â Watch Video
There's some smoke here... We're at the point in the 2024 draft cycle where bonus figures and hypothetical negotiations should be baked into the narrative. Realistically, there's probably four guys that make sense for Cleveland here. Kurtz, Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Jac Caglianone and Braden Montgomery. Someone is almost certainly going to be strong-handed into an under-slot deal.
But what does that look like? Assuming Bazzana and Condon both expect their floor to be Colorado at 3, they should expect ~$9 million to be their base case take-home. The slot value of the No 1 overall pick is ~$10.6 million. Would Bazzana or Condon take $9.8 million to be the first overall pick? That saves Cleveland ~$800,000. If Caglianone thinks his floor is pick 4 (slot value of ~$8.4 million) would he take $9.2 million and save Cleveland $1.4 million of pool dollars? Would Montgomery take ~$8.8 million and save Cleveland ~$1.75 million? Kurtz is largely thought to be a guy who goes 4, 5 or 6. Would he take $8 million and save Cleveland ~$2.6 million to spend elsewhere? There's some whispers that's a possibility.
This pick could come down to which player gives the Guardians the best haircut and allows them to stretch their pool. Kurtz entered the year clearly one of the three-best players in the country, and he's playing as such once again. Don't be surprised if his name is called here in July with a boatload of savings.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Charlie Condon, OF -- Georgia
HOMETOWN: Marietta, GA
HEIGHT: 6-6
WEIGHT: 218
BAT/THROW: R-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video
Assuming Kurtz goes No. 1 overall, it'd be hard to imagine both Condon and Bazzana slipping past the No. 2 pick to Cincinnati. That's by no means a guarantee, but for much of the spring they've separated themselves a half-tier above the rest of the field at this point. Again, money comes into play this high in the draft.
Unlike the Guardians, the Reds do not have Competitive Balance A selection in this draft. They could choose to get creative with their money to pull down a high-profile prep to pick 51 or 71. Would Caglianone take $9.2 million to go No. 2 overall saving the Reds $500k to play with later in the draft? Is the value difference between Condon/Bazzana and Caglianone worth the $500k in savings? As mentioned on Over-Slot, the Reds have a thing for prospects out of Florida.
And how about Montgomery? Would he accept $8.7 million to go No. 2 overall saving the Reds $1 million in their bonus pool? Hard to know at this early stage.
The Reds have sent plenty of brass in to see Konnor Griffin, but that seems like less of a play, at least currently. For the sake of this mock draft, the Reds end up with the top-ranked prospect on the FSS Plus Top 400 Board and skate away happy paying full slot.
3. Colorado Rockies
Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP -- Florida
HOMETOWN: Tampa, FL
HEIGHT: 6-5
WEIGHT: 210
BAT/THROW: L-L
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video
The Rockies lay in wait-and-see mode here. Colorado does seem to like Griffin quite a bit, and he could be an intriguing option at 3, especially if the organization believes he has the chance to play shortstop at the next level. Bazzana being available at 3 is a bit of a surprise, and a positive one considering the state of their outfield-rich farm system. Colorado also seems rather enamored by Montgomery, but given the glut of outfield prospects making their way through the farm in Colorado it may behoove the Rockies to supplement elsewhere.
It's hard to argue with the numbers Caglianone has put up this season. He is an aggressive hitter and strikeouts may eventually materialize in his game at the pro level. To this point he's shown borderline elite bat-to-ball skills and picturing 500-foot homers leaving Coors Field would surely invigorate a fan base looking for more narratives to get behind. Chase Burns and Hagen Smith are undoubtedly the elephants in the room with this pick.
Colorado has gone heavy on the pitching front in recent drafts and Burns and Smith are two arms with generational pedigrees not getting enough attention after that narrative was beaten to death by Paul Skenes in 2023. They're both potential frontline starters with ace upside.
4. Oakland Athletics
Travis Bazzana, 2B -- Oregon State
HOMETOWN: Sydney, Australia
HEIGHT: 6-0
WEIGHT: 199
BAT/THROW: L-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW:Â Watch Video
The hypothetical scenario in which Travis Bazzana is available at 4 for the Oakland Athletics would have to excite them. He and Condon have been the two most valuable college bats all spring and landing his middle-of-the-diamond profile outside of the top three picks would be a huge boon. That's how this mock plays out though. Kurtz going No. 1 overall throws a huge wrench into the perceived order of operations. It speaks toward the value of the college bats at the top of this class.
There are four or five bats at the top that have a conceivable argument to go No. 1 overall. Bazzana almost certainly requires a full-slot here unless Oakland makes a play to try and pin Montgomery and Bazzana against one another in a bidding war.
Bazzana left Tuesday's game after being hit on the hand by a pitch. Him landing at the No. 4 pick has nothing to do with that event. There's next to nothing he could do to see his stock slip at this point. The resume is too broad and robust.
5. Chicago White Sox
Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP -- Harvard-Westlake
HOMETOWN: Simi Valley, CA
HEIGHT: 6-3
WEIGHT: 199
BAT/THROW: L-R
There continues to be a ton of buzz surrounding the Chicago White Sox and high school blue chips at pick No. 5. Plenty of brass have been in to see Griffin on multiple occasions, and they seem to like him a good deal, but it's Rainer who continues to hear his name surge into this spot.
It's been a resurgent spring with an improved hit tool, more assertiveness, and physicality in the box, all whilst maintaining his impressive defensive and athletic chops. He's got a shot to be the first prep off the board and Chicago seems smitten with the high schooler some insist on throwing Colson Montgomery comparisons.
