2024 MLB Draft: Mock Draft 5.0

A new board means a new mock draft and here we are.

This mock comes with some intel. It’s about that time of year…

EDITOR’S NOTE: The following rankings and evaluations by FSS PLUS are based on subjective analysis and industry sources, and do not influence, are not influenced by, or are affiliated with the opinions and reports of Future Stars Series scouting and development staff.

1. Cleveland Guardians

Chase Burns, RHP — Wake Forest
HOMETOWN: Gallatin, TN
HEIGHT: 6-4
WEIGHT: 215
BAT/THROW: R-R

It’s haircut season, ladies and gentlemen. Deals are the narrative surrounding this pick and rumors floating around the industry seem to change on a weekly basis. For much of the season Bazzana has been that guy. Three weeks ago it was Nick Kurtz on a deal. A week ago rumors of James Tibbs III on a massive under-slot was en vogue. This week there seems to be chatter surrounding Chase Burns in this spot on the cheap(ish).

The Charlie Condon option also looms, but many of those listed are represented by agents who are not well-known for cutting deals. At least not as precedents suggest. Burns and Condon are both represented by the same agency. From this chair, it’ll come down to the player inside the top three or four on the board that meets Cleveland at their number. A number that will likely fall in the $9.5-$10 million range. For this mock, that’ll be Burns. And there’s some real chatter there.

2. Cincinnati Reds

Charlie Condon, OF — Georgia
HOMETOWN: Marietta, GA
HEIGHT: 6-6
WEIGHT: 218
BAT/THROW: R-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

Assuming Burns goes No. 1 overall, it’d be hard to imagine both Condon and Bazzana slipping past the No. 2 pick to Cincinnati. That’s by no means a guarantee, but for much of the spring they’ve separated themselves a half-tier above the rest of the field. Again, money comes into play this high in the draft.

With Burns and Condon both being represented by the same agency, they could leverage the situation and swing deals for both players at 1 and 2 ensuring the greatest return possible.

Unlike the Guardians, the Reds do not have a Competitive Balance A selection in this draft. They could choose to get creative with their money to pull down a high-profile prep to pick 51 or 71. Would Caglianone take $9 million to go No. 2 overall saving the Reds $700k to play with later in the draft? Is the value difference between Condon/Bazzana and Caglianone worth the $700k in savings? As mentioned on Over-Slot, the Reds have a thing for prospects out of Florida.

And how about Montgomery? Would he accept $8.7 million to go No. 2 overall saving the Reds $1 million in their bonus pool? Hard to know at this early stage.

For the sake of this mock draft, the Reds end up with the top-ranked prospect on the FSS Plus Top 400 Board and skate away happily paying full slot.

3. Colorado Rockies

Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP — Florida
HOMETOWN: Tampa, FL
HEIGHT: 6-5
WEIGHT: 210
BAT/THROW: L-L
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

The Rockies lay in wait-and-see mode here. Colorado does seem to like Griffin quite a bit, and he could be an intriguing option at 3, especially if the organization believes he has the chance to play shortstop at the next level. Bazzana being available at 3 is a bit of a surprise, and a positive one considering the state of their outfield-rich farm system. Colorado also seems rather enamored by Montgomery, but given the glut of outfield prospects making their way through the farm in Colorado, it may behoove the Rockies to supplement elsewhere.

It’s hard to argue with the numbers Caglianone has put up this season. He is an aggressive hitter and strikeouts may eventually materialize in his game at the pro level. To this point, he’s shown borderline elite bat-to-ball skills and picturing 500-foot homers leaving Coors Field would surely invigorate a fan base looking for more narratives to get behind.

Colorado has gone heavy on the pitching front in recent drafts and Burns and Smith are two arms with generational pedigrees not getting enough attention after that narrative was beaten to death by Paul Skenes in 2023. They’re both potential frontline starters with ace upside.

4. Oakland Athletics

Travis Bazzana, 2B — Oregon State
HOMETOWN: Sydney, Australia
HEIGHT: 6-0
WEIGHT: 199
BAT/THROW: L-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

The hypothetical scenario in which Travis Bazzana is available at 4 for the Oakland Athletics would have to excite them. He and Condon have been the two most valuable college bats all spring and landing his middle-of-the-diamond profile outside of the top three picks would be a huge boon. That’s how this mock plays out though. Burns going No. 1 overall throws a huge wrench into the perceived order of operations. It speaks toward the value of the college bats at the top of this class.

There are four or five bats at the top that have a conceivable argument to go No. 1 overall. Bazzana almost certainly requires a full slot here unless Oakland makes a play to try and pin Kurtz and Bazzana against one another in a bidding war.

The Athletics’ infatuation with Kurtz appears real as multiple front office members have been spotted at several Wake Forest games late this spring. That said, Burns is also appointment television so the Athletics may be doing their diligence on two of the best players in the class.

5. Chicago White Sox

Konnor Griffin, SS/OF — Jackson Prep HS
HOMETOWN: Florence, MS
HEIGHT: 6-4
WEIGHT: 205
BAT/THROW: R-R

There continues to be a ton of buzz surrounding the Chicago White Sox and high school blue chips at pick No. 5. Plenty of brass have been in to see Griffin on multiple occasions, and they seem to like him a good deal. Rainer continues to hear his name surge into this spot.

Griffin is arguably the most tooled-up player in this class and he’s had a massive spring in league play. There are still plenty of names in play here.

6. Kansas City Royals

Nick Kurtz, 1B — Wake Forest
HOMETOWN: Lancaster, PA
HEIGHT: 6-6
WEIGHT: 230
BAT/THROW: L-L
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

There’s been a narrative from scouts all spring that six seems to be the floor for Kurtz and his massive offensive tools. The Royals love the bat (as do the Athletics). Kurtz would immediately become the next bat to help anchor a Royals lineup featuring one of the most dynamic hitters in the game in Bobby Witt Jr.

If Kurtz is swept up by Oakland, Harvard-Westlake shortstop Bryce Rainer is talked about quite a bit here.

7. St. Louis Cardinals

Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP — Harvard-Westlake
HOMETOWN: Simi Valley, CA
HEIGHT: 6-3
WEIGHT: 199
BAT/THROW: L-R

There continues to be a ton of buzz surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals and high school blue chips at pick No. 7. Plenty of brass have been in to see Griffin on multiple occasions, and they seem to like him a good deal, but it’s Rainer who continues to hear his name surge into this spot.

The biggest issue with the fit for Griffin here may be that the Cardinals purportedly prefer him as a pitcher. Griffin, for good reason considering his offensive tools, wants to hit. Tough to back up a Brinks truck for a player and a role that the two sides don’t necessarily agree with.

Rainer is an exceptional athlete with an extremely high ceiling. He follows the philosophy Scouting Director Randy Flores has employed in years past of selecting impact tools on the prep side (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Maysn Winn).

8. Los Angeles Angels

9. Pittsburgh Pirates

Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP — Texas A&M
HOMETOWN: Madison, MS
HEIGHT: 6-2
WEIGHT: 220
BAT/THROW: B-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

There seems to be a considerable amount of buzz surrounding Rainer at pick No. 9, but in this simulation he is unavailable. Montgomery falling to this pick should be considered a luxury in its own right. He’s had No. 1 pick chatter, at least in social circles, and his toolset falling here would be a boon for a Pirates organization desperately looking for answers, both present and future, in their lineup. Tibbs III and Saguaro southpaw Cam Caminiti gets brought up here quite a bit too.

There isn’t a stadium in Major League Baseball that can contain his raw power and his throwing arm would be a huge asset in PNC Park.

10. Washington Nationals

JJ Wetherholt, 2B/3B — West Virginia
HOMETOWN: Mars, PA
HEIGHT: 5-11
WEIGHT: 190
BAT/THROW: L-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

This has got to feel like a pretty big victory for the Nationals with the No. 10 overall pick considering where Wetherholt’s name was just a couple of months ago. A hamstring has slowed his ability to get on the field to this point, but most scouts and front-office folks don’t see a scenario where he falls far. Considering his athleticism and impact in the box, he’s a rare breed in what is a down year for up-the-middle talents.

The Nationals will likely look to target bats at the top of drafts for the foreseeable future and it’s hard to imagine one as talented as Wetherholt slipping past the Nats at this point, assuming they feel comfortable with his hamstring woes that have plagued the talented infielder for the better part of a year. The biggest unknown in this spot is the fact Hagen Smith is still on the board. That’s surely something Washington couldn’t have prepared for.

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11. Detroit Tigers

Cam Caminiti, LHP — Saguaro HS
HOMETOWN: Scottsdale, AZ
HEIGHT: 6-2
WEIGHT: 205
BAT/THROW: L-L

There are those in the industry who steadfastly believe Cam Caminiti is not only the best high school pitching prospect in this class, but rather the best pitching prospect at all. His name has been brought up as high as the top five in conversations and there’s fairly strong conviction he’ll be off the board in front-half of the first round. This is about where his chatter begins and it’s hard to see him getting past Tampa Bay at 18.

12. Boston Red Sox

Hagen Smith, LHP — Arkansas
HOMETOWN: King, NC
HEIGHT: 6-3
WEIGHT: 222
BAT/THROW: L-L

There’s absolutely no way the Red Sox could have foreseen Smith landing in their lap at pick No. 12. And for good reason! He’s been an unstoppable force in the SEC this year. But in this mock, considering the rumors and intel collected over the last several weeks, it’s just how things play out. The No. 6 ranked player on the FSS Plus Top 400 could go as high as No. 3 in this class, but here we are.

For what it’s worth we continue to hear pitching, pitching, and more pitching in this spot. Burns, Yesavage, Caminiti, and Elk City LHP Kash Mayfield catch a lot of buzz.

13. San Francisco Giants

Cam Smith, 3B — Florida State
HOMETOWN: Lake Worth, FL
HEIGHT: 6-3
WEIGHT: 222
BAT/THROW: R-R

The Giants like Cam Smith, but it remains to be seen if he’s priority No. 1. There’s a lot of talk of pitching in this spot with Yesavage being the focal point in many of the conversations we’ve had inside industry circles. The likes of Caminiti, Mayfield, and York Comm RHP Ryan Sloan are other names to keep monitored in this spot.

14. Chicago Cubs

James Tibbs III, OF — Florida State
HOMETOWN: Marietta, GA
HEIGHT: 6-0
WEIGHT: 195
BAT/THROW: L-R

At this stage, it almost seems unlikely Tibbs III could be available to the Cubs with the No. 14 overall pick, but we have heard they love the player and the bat. He’s mentioned so often above this pick that he could be off the board ten spots prior. Hell, we’ve heard his name attached to the Guardians at 1. But the Cubs like him, so here he is.

15. Seattle Mariners

Kash Mayfield, LHP — Elk City
HOMETOWN: Elk City, OK
HEIGHT: 6-4
WEIGHT: 200
BAT/THROW: L-L

The Mariners like Kash Mayfield, but they’re also a pretty big wildcard for the 2024 Draft. It seems to be pitching, pitching, pitching in this spot unless a noteworthy college bat falls into this spot. Tibbs is well-liked inside the organization and they’d be elated if Wetherholt found his way down to this spot.

Mayfield, Caminiti, Sloan, Yesavage, etc… circle them all.

16. Miami Marlins

Tyson Lewis, SS — Millard West
HOMETOWN: Yutan, NE
HEIGHT: 6-2
WEIGHT: 205
BAT/THROW: L-R

17. Milwaukee Brewers

Seaver King, SS/OF — Wake Forest
HOMETOWN: Athens, GA
HEIGHT: 6-0
WEIGHT: 190
BAT/THROW: R-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

King would be exceptional value at this spot as a player who has all the tools in the world. Considering how dynamic the profile is and the Brewers’ affinity for college bats in the first round, this feels like a great fit.

Of note, the Brewers do have a lot of money to play with in this draft so don’t be stunned if they get creative with their funds and picks.

18. Tampa Bay Rays

Wyatt Sanford, SS — Independence
HOMETOWN: Frisco, TX
HEIGHT: 6-1
WEIGHT: 185
BAT/THROW: L-R

Your guess is as good as ours with Tampa. They’ve been all over the map in recent years and they seem to churn through front office types more than any other organization. It seems safe to give them a toolsy up-the-middle stick with impact upside. Stanford catcher Malcolm Moore continues to make sense here if the Rays go a bit safer.

19. New York Mets

Vance Honeycutt, OF — North Carolina
HOMETOWN: Salisbury, NC
HEIGHT: 6-3
WEIGHT: 185
BAT/THROW: R-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

The Mets seem like the perfect organization to get the most out of Honeycutt’s raw, unpolished tools, and they like him. It’s plus raw power, double-plus defense in centerfield, plus speed, and a solid-average arm.

Honeycutt struggles to make consistent contact, resulting in a strikeout rate that might be unsavory to most organizations. But the Mets have been a solid organization in terms of developing hitters of late. They’ve also added a lot of brain power to the front office in recent years and should have that ship firing on all cylinders soon.

20. Toronto Blue Jays

Tommy White, 1B/3B — LSU
HOMETOWN: St. Pete Beach, FL
HEIGHT: 6-2
WEIGHT: 235
BAT/THROW: R-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

Could the Blue Jays go for Tommy White with the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era potentially ending after the 2025 season? It’s not a stretch. There’s been plenty of players connected to the Blue Jays in this spot, including pitching.

21. Minnesota Twins

Slade Caldwell, OF — Valley View HS
HOMETOWN: Jonesboro, AR
HEIGHT: 5-6
WEIGHT: 183
BAT/THROW: L-L

The Twins have emphasized character and tools in recent drafts, albeit with the luxury of some pretty high picks in those years. Caldwell has some of the best traits you’ll find in this class and while he lacks the left-handed prototypical slugging the Twins have tended to lean toward, his double-plus speed and impressive hit tool will certainly play in Minnesota.

22. Baltimore Orioles

Carson Benge, OF — Oklahoma State
HOMETOWN: Yukon, OK
HEIGHT: 6-2
WEIGHT: 185
BAT/THROW: L-R

The Orioles have placed such an exorbitant emphasis on polished bats the past several years that it’d be a fool’s errand to suggest anything otherwise. Benge is the metric darling that Mike Elias & Co™ seems to lean toward year in and year out. He’s something of a Colton Cowser.

If not Benge, look for guys like Westlake blue chip Theodore Gillen, Hardee shortstop Kellon Lindsey, and Freedom outfielder Griffin Burkholder.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers

Theodore Gillen, INF/OF — Westlake HS
HOMETOWN: Austin, TX
HEIGHT: 6-3
WEIGHT: 200
BAT/THROW: L-R

While Gillen had an inconsistent summer, he still managed to put up some of the best data on the high school side of anyone in the class. His 90-percent overall contact rate, 87-percent contact rate against fastballs north of 92 mph, and 84-percent contact rate against spin all ranked at or near the top of the class. Couple those figures with a chase rate under 18 percent and a strikeout rate under 15 percent and it’s easy to understand why his stock has surged this spring.

Los Angeles draft tools. They draft ceiling. Gillen’s got some of the best in the class. Considering his feel to hit and up-the-middle pedigree, it should surprise no one he’s on the Dodgers’ radar.

24. Atlanta Braves

William Schmidt, RHP — Catholic HS
HOMETOWN: Baton Rouge, LA
HEIGHT: 6-3
WEIGHT: 185
BAT/THROW: R-R

It would be a surprise, frankly, if Schmidt lasted to the 24th pick, but the Braves would hardly complain. They’ve consistently targeted pitching for the better part of a decade and Schmidt is as good as any arm they’ve landed. If he’s gone, look for Atlanta to take a stab at guys like Braylon Doughty, Ryan Sloan, Payton Tolle, or others with high-performing four-seam fastballs.

25. San Diego Padres

Kellon Lindsey, SS — Hardee HS
HOMETOWN: Wauchula, FL
HEIGHT: 6-0
WEIGHT: 175
BAT/THROW: R-R

The temperature around the game is someone is going to take a shot on Lindsey inside the first round and take a shot on his tools and upside. Lindsey has a star-level ceiling if the bat comes along at the next level. He’s a reasonably raw prospect with extremely loud athletic tools. He’s an elite runner who will undoubtedly find a way to carve out a big-league role in one form or another. It’s the Padres… they’re taking a prep. This is probably his floor with plenty of suitors in the 18-25 range.

26. New York Yankees

Griffin Burkholder, OF — Freedom
HOMETOWN: South Riding, VA
HEIGHT: 6-2
WEIGHT: 195
BAT/THROW: R-R

Burkholder has been one of the buzziest names on the scouting circuit this spring. He’s a 70-grade runner with a tremendous arm and thundering bat speed. He’d certainly be a zig when the Yankees typical zag is left-handed hitters with thump. Burkholder fits somewhere from pick 25 down to early in round two.

27. Philadelphia Phillies

Brody Brecht, RHP — Iowa
HOMETOWN: Ankeny, IA
HEIGHT: 6-4
WEIGHT: 205
BAT/THROW: R-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

Brecht is a name that is tough to pin down. Toronto seems to like him and he’s been mentioned in conversation inside of that pick too. But in this scenario, he falls to Philadelphia, an organization never too shy about selecting pitching.

Brecht seems like a good value with the 27th pick in this draft. It’s clearly the floor of a dominant closer who could shut down games as early as 2025, but Brecht still has top-of-the-rotation upside if Philadelphia can straighten out the strikes. This is a crapshoot guess as there are plenty of exciting players still on the board here.

28. Houston Astros

Caleb Bonemer, SS/3B — Okemos
HS HOMETOWN: Okemos, MI
HEIGHT: 6-1
WEIGHT: 200
BAT/THROW: R-R
DRAFT SPOTLIGHT INTERVIEW: Watch Video

The Astros are likely in a wait-and-see mode at pick No. 28 with an emphasis on high school position players. Bonemer is as good a guess as we’ve got at this stage for Houston. Kansas State shortstop Kaelen Culpepper makes sense around this range if the Astros are going to start going the twitchy, college shortstop route as they did with Brice Matthews in 2024.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks

Ryan Sloan, RHP — York Comm
HOMETOWN: Elmhurst, IL
HEIGHT: 6-4
WEIGHT: 220
BAT/THROW: R-R

The DBacks seem all over the board with this pick, as it to be expected from a team with a glut of first-round options weighing how they want to divvy up their overflowing bonus pool. It could go in any number of directions. They seem to like some of the preps in this class. Sloan is a popular name with fits as high as No. 15 in this class. He being on the board at 29 would frankly be a surprise. But it’s a surprise the DBacks would welcome.

30. Texas Rangers

Payton Tolle, LHP — TCU
HOMETOWN: Yukon, OK
HEIGHT: 6-6
WEIGHT: 225
BAT/THROW: L-L

Tolle is a metric darling with a devastating fastball up to 97 featuring elite extension and a unicorn vertical approach angle. He’s precisely the type of arm that Texas has begun to target in recent years; an organization working to improve its pitching development. Tolle will need to continue developing a third pitch and reining in his control, but for now, the fastball-slider combo gets hitters out at extreme clips. It’s middle-of-the-rotation upside.

31. Arizona Diamondbacks

Braylon Doughty, RHP — Chaparral
HOMETOWN: Murrieta, CA
HEIGHT: 6-1
WEIGHT: 195
BAT/THROW: R-R

The DBacks are primed to take some chances in this class and doubling up on high school pitching isn’t the worst approach. Doughty has been one of the more dominant high school pitchers in the country this spring with a 3000-rpm breaker and a fastball up to 97. Other preps such as Oxford shortstop Carter Johnson, as well as Lewis and Bell will likely get consideration here.

32. Baltimore Orioles

Carter Johnson, SS — Oxford
HOMETOWN: Oxford, AL
HEIGHT: 6-2
WEIGHT: 185
BAT/THROW: L-R

Baltimore leaving this draft with Benge and Johnson would be a huge win for the future of the organization. It’s the same type of approach the O’s used when landing Gunnar Henderson in 2019. Johnson is a smooth defender with a beautiful left-handed swing. Again, guys like Tyson Lewis and Tyler Bell could be interchangeable with Johnson in this spot.

33. Minnesota Twins

Christian Moore, MIF — Tennessee
HOMETOWN: Brooklyn, NY
HEIGHT: 6-1
WEIGHT: 216
BAT/THROW: R-R

The Twins have coveted batted-ball metrics and performers for a long, long time and Moore fits that bill. He can play second base at a high level, or swing to shortstop and third base in a pinch. It’s legitimate impact with a chance to hit 25 homers at his peak at the next level.

34. Milwaukee Brewers

Kaelen Culpepper, SS — Kansas State
HOMETOWN: Memphis, TN
HEIGHT: 6-0
WEIGHT: 185
BAT/THROW: R-R

The Brewers have been all about college bats in recent years and Culpepper represents one of the sneakier sticks in the 2024 class. It’s twitchy athleticism and up-the-middle tools, traits that have been tough to come by in this class. He can play anywhere on the diamond. Culpepper would join Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Tyler Black, Eric Brown, and Brock Wilken as players in the college bat bucket to get selected in round one and enroll with the BrewCrew™.

35. Arizona Diamondbacks

36. Cleveland Guardians

PJ Morlando, OF/1B — Summerville HS
HOMETOWN: Summerville, SC
HEIGHT: 6-3
WEIGHT: 204
BAT/THROW: L-R

This would be a pretty solid value for the Guardians at 36. A left-handed bat with legitimate 60/60 upside. Cleveland drafted a lot of these sorts of profiles last year. It would also make some sense considering the assumption they save money with pick no. 1. Morlando also has a chance to play left field in Cleveland with range that isn’t as tested as other parks. A combo of Burns and Morlando would have to excite the Guardians.

37. Pittsburgh Pirates

Malcolm Moore, C — Stanford
HOMETOWN: Sacramento, CA
HEIGHT: 6-1
WEIGHT: 205
BAT/THROW: L-R

Moore is the most polished hitter of the college catching crop and Pittsburgh is presumed to lean toward the analytic types. This feels like a perfect spot for another prep to come off the board, but nothing is screaming off the page and there’s no real intel to suggest any one direction. The Pirates haven’t given up on Henry Davis behind the dish, and the dream of Endy Rodriguez lives on, but Pittsburgh realistically has to start preparing secondary options. Moore is a very, very good one. Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore would be awfully fun here as well.

38. Colorado Rockies

Walker Janek, C — Sam Houston State
HOMETOWN: Portland, TX
HEIGHT: 6-0
WEIGHT: 190
BAT/THROW: R-R

Janek has been a nice story this year. At time of publish he’s running an average north of .400 featuring considerable raw power and some twitchiness in his overall game. He’s destined to stick behind the plate and scouts like the upside of where his profile could go in pro ball. He can run, he can defend, and there’s bat speed with more coming. Janek could come off the board ten spots higher than this mark, but he feels like a good fit in Colorado.

39. Kansas City Royals

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Joe Doyle

Joe Doyle is a senior analyst at FSS PLUS, leading coverage efforts in scouting, player development, and the MLB Draft. He previously was Director of Scouting at Prospects Live. Joe is the host of Over-Slot, a podcast centered on scouting and analytics.

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