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It took a minute, and to be honest with you, I needed it. Day 2 of the on-field portion of the MLB Draft Combine was Wednesday, with Thursday dedicated to strength and conditioning. Before discussing what I saw, I needed time to synthesize my observations.
Now’s the time.
On our side at New Balance Future Stars Series, we have a lot happening beyond the Combine. There are professional matters throughout Latin America, along with other pieces of the overall baseball ecosystem that require our attention. Spending my time at the Combine meant I wanted to make sure my perspective was crystal clear before putting words to paper.
From our point of view — through the Future Stars Series lens — just shy of 50 percent of the players in attendance had some connection to our organization. They’re players we’ve had the opportunity to know, evaluate, develop, or simply become a small part of their journey. Some relationships have lasted years. Others lasted only a moment. That’s baseball. There are countless voices in this game, and not every path fits every player. Still, it’s rewarding to see so many familiar faces on the field.
It was invigorating to watch players like Ace Reese, Zion Rose, Jackson Flora, Grady Emerson, Dom Pellegrin, Easton Autrey (more on Autrey and Pellegrin to come), Alex Hernandez, Carson Kerce, Cody New, Trey Phelps, Judah Ota, Landon Brown and Genson Veras — players we’ve spent time with over the years, each at different stages of their development and for different lengths of time. Some we’ve known for years. Others were part of Future Stars Series for only a brief period. Regardless of the duration, I love seeing so many continue their journeys and take another step toward professional baseball.
As I stepped back from the field, I also wanted to take the pulse of the larger baseball ecosystem.
Over the last several days, there’s been plenty circulating on social media about different players. One example is Colorado right-hander Ethan Wachsmann. I mentioned earlier in the week that there is some bullpen risk in his profile. That doesn’t mean he isn’t talented. Quite the opposite. He has a good arm. It was simply an honest evaluation based on what I saw.
Since then, social media has exploded with declarations about what type of prospect he is. Here’s the reality. Every look at a player is a snapshot. That’s it. Every evaluator who has ever had to make real decisions — decisions which impact organizations, draft boards, bonuses, careers, and jobs — understands how careful you have to be when labeling a player. Do you oversell him? Do you undersell him? Where do you place him? What are you really projecting?
Unfortunately, I continue to see an increasing divide.
On one side are writers, influencers, and social media personalities who see eye-popping metrics — velocity, spin rate, exit velocity, size, and athletic testing — and curate narratives offering suggestive, elevating status on the player. On the other side are former players from another era who dismiss those same metrics entirely and criticize the modern game.
To both sides of that debate:
Neither is correct.
The best summary I’ve heard came from a longtime MLB player who remains deeply involved in today’s game and has embraced modern evaluation without abandoning baseball fundamentals. He told me, “It’s great the metrics are everywhere, and it’s great everybody’s learning them. But I wish kids had a two-strike approach and could execute the fastball down and away.”
That, to me, perfectly summarizes the entire argument.
We’ve reached a point where too many people evaluate players from one side of the equation — instead of both.
Metrics matter. Execution matters. Athleticism matters. Baseball instincts matter. Projection matters. Performance matters.
The players who combine all of those things — the ones with legitimate physical tools who also demonstrate baseball instincts, adjustability, competitiveness, and execution—are the players who stay in the game for a long time.
Those are the real prospects.
I’ve seen the leaderboards. I’ve seen the exit velocities, the longest home runs, and the fastball velocities. That’s all standard stuff, they end up public information, it’s what these events provide general fans of baseball — numbers clubs use as part of their process.
The metrics are coming from Hawk-Eye, which is now the standard in big league stadiums after replacing TrackMan in the big leagues as well as many ballparks in the minors. They’re Hawk-Eye verified metrics, and I have no reason to question their accuracy. They’re outstanding at measuring exactly what they’re designed to measure.
But here’s the thing:
You can produce those same leaderboards for all 300 players who attended the Combine. The players who ultimately dominate draft room conversations are rarely identified by a leaderboard, and certainly not a leaderboard alone. The people making those decisions aren’t writers, podcasters, or social media personalities. And, frankly, that includes me.
Our organization has had a significant impact on player evaluation. We’ve built a track record we’re proud of, one that now includes celebrating our 16th Future Stars Series alum to reach the big leagues this season, with Marco Raya making his debut for the Minnesota Twins this week.
But we don’t decide where players get drafted. We don’t decide what they’re paid. Nobody outside the 30 Major League Baseball clubs does.
As information gets compiled into models and discussions, the overwhelming message I continue to hear from evaluators making real decisions is remarkably consistent.
“I’m not impressed.”
That doesn’t mean there aren’t players they’ll draft. It doesn’t mean there isn’t talent. It means the overall body of work isn’t leaving experienced evaluators convinced.
Why? Because the harder the game leans toward chasing raw metrics without equal emphasis on execution, the more flaws begin to show. Too many pitchers simply throw the baseball instead of commanding it. Too many hitters are satisfied with loud batting practice that still produces mishit foul balls — something that should rarely happen in a controlled environment.
Execution has become secondary to raw ability. The result is a game filled with walks, strikeouts, swing-and-miss, and inconsistency, which all come on top of the game organically being full of failure.
Economically, baseball is doing very well. But financial success doesn’t automatically mean the product is getting better. More importantly, it doesn’t mean the people making draft decisions are compelled. The evaluators I spoke with continue to place value on players who execute — not simply players who produce eye-catching numbers on a leaderboard.
Finding Value Beyond the Metrics
With that in mind, it’s time to talk about value. Everyone has heard about the metrics. We’ve all seen the leaderboards. Exit velocity. Home run distance. Bat speed. Athletic testing. It’s all been covered.
Let’s talk about where athleticism, projection, baseball skill, and value intersect.
Day 2 Belonged to the Bats
One of the first players who caught my attention was CanadianSS Elliot Lascelles, a Yale commit. The Yale commitment tells you plenty about the young man. He’s obviously intelligent and may prove to be a tougher sign than people realize. Long term, I don’t think he stays at shortstop. I see him moving into the outfield, where the bat becomes the carrying tool. The upside is there, but like every young bat, it’ll ultimately come down to how much he hits.
Alain Gómez-Gudiño, a catcher from Saguaro High School in Scottsdale, Arizona, continues to look like a defense-first player with offensive upside. He showed enough quality swings in game action and enough pull-side power from the left side to believe there’s something there offensively. Whether that’s an everyday regular remains to be seen, but he reminds me of Jorge Fabregas — a catcher whose value came from defending, handling a staff, and contributing enough offensively to stay in the league for nearly a decade.
Miami’s Alex Sosa reminds me of Daniel Nava. He’s versatile, plays multiple positions, and probably won’t overwhelm you with raw tools. But players like that have value because they simply find ways to help clubs win.
Akanni Owadunni, out of Northern California, also stood out for me. A big, physical right-handed hitting catcher with legitimate power potential, he’s spent considerable time with the MLB Develops program.
Personally, I think that may have slowed portions of his development. Their platform provides opportunities, but I also believe there’s value in competing across multiple environments and staying with organizations that know your game well. Regardless, the physicality is undeniable. The power is real, and he’ll perform.
New Orleans product Dom Pellegrin reminds me stylistically of Jack Wilson. It’s a plus defender, a plus arm, and by the time it’s all said and done, he may be a plus-plus runner. The bat projects around average with limited power, but this is the type of player who can play shortstop every day for a long time.
Braden Holcomb from Vanderbilt has a little Tom Brunansky in his profile. The arm fits right field, but like every corner profile, the bat ultimately determines everything. He hit .352/.434/.621 with 14 home runs this season.
Genson Veras, the son of former major leaguer José Veras, possesses as much raw power as anyone in attendance. He’s going to swing and miss, that’s part of the profile. But there’s legitimate 40-home run upside in there. That doesn’t mean he’ll reach it. It means that’s the ceiling.
Josiah Kemp profiles as a top-of-the-order center fielder. He’s not built like his uncle, Matt Kemp, but the fast-twitch athleticism, barrel control, and ability to stay through the middle of the field all suggest a polished offensive approach.
UCLA OF Dean West reminds me of Daniel Johnson (New Mexico State, 2016 (5th round) , with perhaps a little Tony Phillips mixed in if the offensive game continues to develop. He’s simply the type of player who finds his way onto winning clubs.
Overall, these hitters stood out because they weren’t chasing numbers. They weren’t trying to hit every baseball 450 feet. They weren’t selling out for exit velocity. They consistently found the barrel, controlled the strike zone, and showed baseball skill.
Ironically, that’s becoming increasingly uncommon.
Among the other hitters who stood out were OF Judah Ota (Iolani HS, HI), Easton Autrey. Autrey has the best raw power in this draft. I don’t care what the estimated distances say. I don’t care what the leaderboards say. I saw it.
I’ve seen these players multiple times along the way — not just this week.
Autrey possesses legitimate 80-grade raw power, and that opinion is shared by more than a few evaluators around the ballpark. He hit baseballs that may not have landed yet.
Getting him on campus at Texas is going to be a tremendous challenge because clubs simply don’t walk past tools like that.
The offensive comparison falls somewhere between Jason Giambi and Travis Hafner, although Easton is a considerably better athlete than many people realize. He probably doesn’t stay at third base long term, but he has more than enough athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot before eventually settling wherever his bat fits best.
Ota might simply be his own comparison. He’s one of the most physically impressive players in the class. Day 1 was solid. Day 2 was loud.
The swings were cleaner. The timing was better. The impact was greater. He reminded everyone exactly why his upside remains so intriguing.
Pitching Perspective: Execution Still Wins
I hate to say it, but it was a lot of the same as Day 1.
The guys who consistently lived in the strike zone generally backed off their velocity enough to execute. The arms that simply aired it out often struggled to repeat it. That’s not unusual.
That is what happens when velocity has to translate into actual pitching.
One thing became very clear: The college pitching separated itself from the high school pitching.
That’s not meant as a criticism of the high school arms. The prep pitchers were generally fresher, threw with less effort, had louder raw velocity, and, because of their age, were naturally more exciting.
But professional baseball doesn’t work that way. Big league hitters can adjust to velocity. Velocity alone doesn’t get hitters out. What matters is how you protect your fastball, how you move it around the strike zone, how your secondary pitches complement it, and whether you can execute consistently.
Viewed through that lens, the college pitchers were simply more complete. Across the board, they showed better command, better sequencing, better secondary stuff, and a much clearer path to moving through professional baseball. which isn’t a surprise. They gained valuable, additional experience since they were coming out of high school.
People will always get caught up in spin rate and every measurable available today. Those numbers have value. But the things that continue to matter most to me are plane, angle, extension, release characteristics, and, above all, execution.
The pitchers who consistently performed best weren’t always the hardest throwers. They were the ones with repeatable deliveries.
Repeatable releases. Repeatable mechanics. Repeatable execution.
That’s what projects.
It’s also not lost on me that the best overall performers — both hitters and pitchers — were the players with the most repeatable actions and the greatest remaining projection.
Overall, my takeaway was simple:
On the mound, the college pitchers clearly separated themselves through refinement, execution, and a shorter developmental path.
Offensively, the high school hitters may have possessed the louder ceilings, while the college hitters offered more certainty. Pretty standard, but certainly a loud-and-clear fact.
The common denominator on both sides of the ball was equally clear: The players who stood out weren’t the ones chasing numbers. They were the ones who repeated quality movements, trusted their baseball skills, and executed consistently.
As we move closer to the MLB Draft, there will be plenty more to discuss.
For now, that’s the biggest takeaway.
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