It’s that time of year again — the Winter Meetings are upon us in Dallas, which means MLB Draft Lottery, too.
Teams that do not qualify for the postseason the prior season have a sorted chance at a Top-6 selection, decided by the lottery.The remaining selections will be assigned based on reverse order of win-loss percentage.
*Non-playoff teams which are not revenue-sharing recipients cannot select in the lottery in back-to-back seasons, eliminating the Chicago White Sox in this year’s process. Teams cannot receive lottery selections more than two straight years, eliminating the Athletics from this year’s lottery. Neither team can select higher than No. 10.
A year ago the Cleveland Guardians won the lottery despite just a 2% chance to do so. The club selected Oregon State 2B Travis Bazzana with the pick in July.
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Joe Doyle, FSS PLUS Senior Analyst, on the importance of the top pick.
“Like any year, landing the No. 1 overall pick in this years draft provides far more value than just selecting first. The difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 pick in 2025 figures to approach $1 million in bonuses. That extra money to spend affords the team who lands the top pick the ability to get creative. There isn’t a clear-cut superstar at the top of this draft at this point, but the high school talent to be paid away from school in the Comp A round and second/third rounds will allow whomever gets the No. 1 choice to get awfully aggressive after Round 1.”
This year’s odds for the December 10 lottery:
| TEAM | CHANCE |
|---|---|
| Rockies | 22.45% |
| Marlins | 22.45% |
| Angels | 17.96% |
| Nationals | 10.20% |
| Blue Jays | 7.48% |
| Pirates | 5.31% |
| Reds | 3.67% |
| Ranger | 2.45% |
| Giants | 1.90% |
| Rays | 1.50% |
| Red Sox | 1.22% |
| Twins | 1.09% |
| Cardinals | 0.82% |
| Cubs | 0.68% |
| Mariners | 0.53% |
| Diamondbacks | 0.27% |
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